An analyst suggests that for Russia, acting on Ukraine now may be more cost-effective than waiting.

• According to Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Russia wants to make it clear that arms exports to Ukraine did not deter Moscow.
• From Russia's perspective, the costs of inaction are likely higher than the cost of escalating at the moment, he stated.
• Lee stated that Russia's attack could occur tonight or in the near future.

According to a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), from Russia's perspective, it might be more advantageous to increase aggression towards Ukraine rather than taking no action.

If Russia concedes now, NATO will view arms exports to Ukraine as a "pivotal moment" and may require additional deterrence, according to Rob Lee of the FPRI's Eurasia program.

On Monday, CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" reported that Russia denied wanting NATO or Ukraine to believe that it was involved in the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

From Russia's perspective, the costs of inaction are likely higher than the cost of escalating at the moment, he stated.

Kyiv currently has limited capability in terms of long-range missiles, but is actively working to enhance its capabilities.

If Ukraine acquires longer-range missile systems, any future Russian escalation could result in Ukraine attacking Russian cities or targeting significant military infrastructure within Russia, according to Lee.

He said that Ukraine doesn't have that option right now, and it's part of the cost-benefit analysis for them.

Lee stated that Russia could launch an attack on Ukraine tonight or in the near future, based on indications that Moscow is relocating troops and equipment near the border and deploying soldiers in smaller groups.

It seems that they have all the necessary components on the military front, according to him.

"At any moment, it could happen," he added, thinking it was possible.

The presence of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine has caused concern that Moscow may invade Ukraine once again, as it did in the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The Kremlin has refuted these claims.