Americans could be exempt from income taxes under Trump's tax plans.
- Approximately 46.8 million Americans, which is about half of the U.S. electorate, would be exempt from paying any income taxes under Donald Trump's tax reform proposals.
- Trump has suggested removing taxes on tips and Social Security benefits and has expressed consideration for exemptions for firefighters, police, and military personnel.
- Trump's tariff proposals are expected to generate revenue, which is part of his larger vision to transition away from the income tax system.
According to CNBC's analysis of several estimates, roughly 93.2 million Americans could receive total or partial income tax exemptions under former President Donald Trump's tax reform ideas, which would represent just under half of the U.S. electorate.
Trump has proposed a comprehensive tax reform, which includes income tax cuts, as part of his economic campaign to voters.
The Republican presidential nominee has proposed eliminating income tax on tips, Social Security benefits, and overtime pay, and last week, in an interview on OutKick, Trump stated that he would consider tax exemptions for firefighters, police officers, military personnel, and veterans.
If implemented, those exemptions would impact tens of millions of taxpayers.
According to the Social Security Administration, approximately 68 million Americans receive benefits each month, while an estimate from Yale University's Budget Lab suggests that about 4 million workers were in tipped jobs in 2023.
In March 2023, the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs estimated that there were 18.6 million living veterans. The Department of Defense reported that there were 1.3 million active-duty military personnel. Additionally, there are 800,000 sworn law enforcement officers and approximately 500,000 paid firefighters.
These reforms could potentially exempt approximately 93.2 million individuals from paying any portion of their income taxes.
Approximately 38% of the 244 million Americans eligible to vote in 2024.
If Trump implemented his plan to eliminate taxes on overtime pay, fewer people would be exempt from part of their income taxes.
Trump's exemptions are part of his plan to replace the income tax system with revenue generated through his tariff proposals. He has promised to impose a 20% universal tariff on all imports from all countries, with a specific 60% rate for Chinese imports.
Trump's strategy of imposing tariffs on imports may result in replacing income taxes with an unseen tax on consumers.
"In the past, when we were intelligent and our country was prosperous, in the 1890s and beyond, the country was at its wealthiest. There were tariffs, but no income tax. However, now we have income taxes and people are dying."
Trump's plan to shift away from income taxes is viewed by analysts as an unrealistic aspiration.
According to Evercore analysts, in a June report, it was stated that "We believe income taxes will remain the primary source of government revenue, despite the implementation of tariffs."
CNBC did not receive an immediate response from the Harris campaign regarding Trump's proposed tax plans.
Trump plans to make his 2017 tax cuts permanent while simultaneously proposing changes to the income tax system.
According to the Tax Foundation, the nonpartisan organization, Trump's tax proposals would decrease federal tax revenue by an estimated $3 trillion from 2025 to 2034.
If Trump wins the November election, his tax overhaul will not be enacted unless the House of Representatives has a Republican majority, as all tax bills originate there.
In November, the outcome of a few competitive districts will determine whether Republicans retain control of the House with a narrow margin.
Politics
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