According to a CNBC Fed Survey, it is predicted that a Harris victory is the most probable outcome in the upcoming election.

• According to the latest CNBC Fed Survey, some of the top U.S. economists and fund managers now predict that Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump in the November presidential election.
• In contrast to the late July survey, where 50% predicted a Trump victory and 37% forecast a Harris win, the current poll shows that 48% of respondents expect a Harris victory, while 41% predict a Trump win.
• In the September survey, more respondents believed that Trump would be better for the stock market and economy, while Harris would be better for the country as a whole.

According to a CNBC Fed Survey released Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris is viewed as more likely to win the U.S. presidential election in 2024 than former President Donald Trump.

The survey's 27 participants, comprising of investment strategists, economists, and fund managers, have varying opinions on the upcoming election. Forty-eight percent of them predict a Harris victory, while 41% believe Trump will emerge victorious.

Several days after the first and possibly only debate between Harris and Trump, the survey was conducted from Sept. 12 to Sept. 14.

The latest CNBC Fed Survey shows a change from the previous release in late July, where 50% predicted a Trump victory and 37% believed Harris would win the presidency.

Nine days after President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race and backed Harris, the July survey was made public.

In the previous month, when Biden was still running for president, 48% believed Trump would win, 35% predicted Biden's reelection, and 17% were uncertain or unaware.

Since Harris entered the race without opposition in July, her campaign has been focusing on developing the vice president's economic plan and policy proposals. With only about 50 days left until the election on November 5th, the high cost of living is the top concern for voters, according to national polls.

Harris' economic strategy centers on increasing the size of the middle class and reducing consumer expenses. To achieve this, she proposes offering housing subsidies, enlarging tax credits and deductions, and combating what she perceives as corporate "price gouging."

Trump has advocated for prolonging and intensifying his initial tax cuts, imposing a strict tariff policy on all imports, and canceling some of the Biden administration's infrastructure spending.

A majority of CNBC Fed Survey respondents believe a Trump presidency would be better for the stock market than a Harris administration.

When the topic of the broader economy is discussed, the forecasts change. According to a recent poll, 44% of respondents believe that Trump is a better candidate for the economy as a whole, compared to 41% who prefer Harris.

If Trump carries out his plans, a comprehensive tariff and a significant deportation of immigrants could lead to inflation and slow the economy, potentially resulting in a recession, according to Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics LLC.

According to a poll, 52% of respondents believe that Harris would be better for the country as a whole, while only 37% see Trump as better overall for the United States.

If Trump carries out his plans, a comprehensive tariff and a significant deportation of immigrants could lead to inflation and slow the economy, potentially resulting in a recession, according to Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics LLC, based on survey results.

He stated that the proposals of the two candidates differ significantly in terms of winners and losers, rather than their effects on overall economic growth.

The respondents predicted that Harris' economic plans would be more beneficial for budget deficits and trade policy. They assigned higher ratings to Trump for the impact of his policy proposals on business regulation, inflation, jobs, and taxes.

The health of the U.S. economy is not solely determined by the president's policy agenda, regardless of who is elected.

Robert Fry, chief economist at Robert Fry Economics LLC, wrote that the deficit and inflation rate are both headed up due to the bad economic policies advocated by Trump and Harris.

The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates too late or by too little was ranked as the top economic risk by respondents, while the presidential election was ranked sixth.

The Federal Reserve's independence is expected to be respected by 100% of people regarding Harris, while only 42% believe the same about Trump.

"According to Richard Bernstein, CEO of Bernstein Advisors, the independence of the Federal Reserve could be a concern under Trump, but it is important to remember that there are only three branches of government outlined in the Constitution: the Legislative, Judicial, and Executive branches. As such, the Fed's independence has always been limited by the established three branches."

At its Wednesday meeting, the Fed is predicted to reduce interest rates for the first time since March 2020.