A security analyst predicts that Putin aims to bring about a regime change in Ukraine and may launch an invasion of the entire country.

A security analyst predicts that Putin aims to bring about a regime change in Ukraine and may launch an invasion of the entire country.
A security analyst predicts that Putin aims to bring about a regime change in Ukraine and may launch an invasion of the entire country.
  • According to Jeffrey Edmonds, a former director for Russia at the National Security Council, Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking "regime change" and is likely to invade the rest of Ukraine.
  • On Tuesday, the U.S. and U.K. declared new sanctions against Russian financial institutions, individuals, and sovereign debt following Putin's order to deploy troops in two pro-Moscow regions in eastern Ukraine.
  • Edmonds stated that it doesn't make sense for Putin to simply maintain control over the separatist territories, as he has had them since 2014, and increasing the number of troops there won't achieve his desired outcome.
Russia is 'pretty optimistic' that it can survive sanctions over Ukraine crisis, says analyst

A former director for Russia at the National Security Council claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking "regime change" and may invade the rest of Ukraine.

According to Jeffrey Edmonds, who spoke on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Wednesday, given the size of the force and the rhetoric about Ukraine's statehood, Putin is likely to take decisive action.

On Monday, Putin ordered troops into two pro-Moscow regions in eastern Ukraine following his announcement of recognizing the independence of separatist areas.

On Tuesday, the U.S. and U.K. announced new sanctions against Russian financial institutions, individuals, and sovereign debt in response to the incursion. President Biden labeled Russia's actions as the start of an "invasion" of Ukraine, warning that more U.S. sanctions could be imposed.

Edmonds stated that Putin is likely to take his actions to the extent of reaching Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.

The claims that the people on the East are fighting back against Ukrainian offensives are false, as Edmonds stated.

Previously, Russia's state-controlled media reported that Ukrainian government forces had shelled Moscow-backed rebels in the East.

Moscow could use false claims about the conflict as a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine, according to a previous warning from the U.S.

Edmonds, a senior analyst at CNA Corporation, stated that this is the pretext he is using to justify invading the rest of Ukraine.

He replied, "We are referring to a regime change."

Russia plan for further attacks

Russia's proxies have controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions since 2014, and now the Kremlin recognizes them as rebel-held territories.

Although earlier reports suggested that Russia would withdraw some troops, recent developments indicate that Moscow has increased its military presence near Ukraine's border. According to U.S. estimates, Moscow has currently deployed between 169,000 to 190,000 military personnel near Ukraine, which is an increase from the 100,000 troops reported on January 30.

Edmonds stated that, considering the substantial military reinforcement, it is incomprehensible for Putin to maintain control over the separatist regions.

"Moving more troops into those territories won't achieve what he desires, as he has had them since 2014," he stated.

On Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that there is "every indication" that Russia is preparing for a complete assault on Ukraine.

Stoltenberg stated at a press conference that more forces are leaving the camps and are prepared to engage in combat, while ongoing provocations in Donbass and false flag operations are being used to create a pretext for an attack, following an extraordinary meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission.

Ukraine wary as U.S. says Russia may use fake video as invasion pretext

The Donbass region, situated in eastern Ukraine, is an industrialized area that encompasses the separatist territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.

According to Edmonds, the primary motive behind Putin's aggression towards Ukraine is to strengthen Russia's significance as a secure nation in Europe.

He aims to ensure that Moscow is deeply involved in any decisions or the overall structure in Europe, as he believes Russia should be restored to its leading position in Europe.

‘Hot conflict’

On Tuesday, Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, canceled his scheduled meeting with Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, due to Moscow's ongoing troop deployments in Ukraine.

The Russian economy will face "severe consequences" due to the "long-standing conflict" over Crimea, according to Jonathan Katz, a director of Democracy Initiatives and senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is a 'hot conflict' and 'cold war' mixed together, says think tank

Katz stated on CNBC that Russia's deployment of troops to Donbass, as mentioned in Mr Putin's speech two days ago, has brought us further from peace than we were three days ago, a week ago, and two weeks ago.

The United States, NATO, the EU, and its partners will face a long-term challenge due to the mixture of hot conflict and cold war, he stated.

by Sumathi Bala

politics