A political disrupter in Taiwan could potentially determine the outcome of a split parliament.

• In the first competitive three-way race for the Taiwan presidency since 2000, Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People’s Party finished last, but he received more than a quarter of the popular vote.
• In the new 113-seat legislature, the TPP holds eight seats, with no clear majority for the major parties.
• We must take Ko's rise seriously," said Wei-Ting Yen, an assistant professor in government at Franklin and Marshall College. "There is a strong social base supporting his populist discourse.
• The current mayor of Taipei City spoke directly to the concerns of young and educated individuals, addressing topics such as rising housing costs and stagnant wages amidst high inflation.

"We'll achieve our victory one day," Ko Wen-je, the defeated presidential candidate for the Taiwan People's Party, stated in his concession speech two weeks ago.

He encouraged his disheartened young supporters, some of them in tears, not to surrender, and portrayed himself as a solitary social movement champion advocating for political transformation.

The former Taipei City Mayor stated in Mandarin that for him, over the past 10 years, whether he was in office or running for election, he always viewed it as a social movement aimed at transforming political culture. However, since this social movement has not yet fully come to fruition, we must continue to work diligently.

Although he came in last in the first competitive three-way race for the Taiwan presidency since 2000, Ko received more than a quarter of the popular vote, breaking the usual stranglehold of the dominant political parties, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and Kuomintang.

The 63-year-old man spoke to the young and educated about their daily struggles, such as high housing costs and low wages, in a clear and relatable manner.

We must take Ko's rise very seriously," said Wei-Ting Yen, an assistant professor in government at Franklin and Marshall College, to CNBC. "There is a strong social base supporting his populist discourse, which reflects anti-establishment attitudes. Is Taiwan experiencing a populist uprising?

In contrast to the populist tones of his political stance, Ko has linked himself with the youthful idealism of social movements in Taiwan.

Ko has paradoxically aligned himself with past social movements in Taiwan that have enhanced the island's nascent democracy, despite being often seen as a populist, anti-establishment, and anti-elitist figure who can sometimes be deemed a threat to democracy.

Ko, a former leading organ transplant surgeon in Taiwan, shifted from supporting the DPP to running as an independent for the Taipei mayorship in 2014. In the most recent presidential election, he nearly formed an alliance with the main opposition party, the KMT.

Taiwan’s young and restless

Taiwan's two major parties must now decide whether to prioritize the needs of younger voters or maintain a focus on broader strategic interests, potentially leading to a conflict with older voters.

According to Sara Newland, an assistant professor at Smith College, Ko's personality traits, such as his bluntness and willingness to criticize traditional parties, as well as his status as a political outsider, attract individuals who feel disconnected from the established political parties.

She stated that both the KMT and the DPP are ignoring the main domestic concerns of voters, and that populist messaging appeals to people who feel like Taiwan's current economic and political system is not benefiting them.

Before the ban on opinion polls before Election Day, 53.7% of respondents aged 20-29 in the final My Formosa poll indicated they would vote Ko for president.

The percentage of respondents who said they would vote for Ko in the poll was lower than the 26.46% of the popular vote he received in the Jan. 13 election. No immediate breakdown of the election outcome was available.

Despite their origins as a pro-democracy movement that operated underground during martial law, young people now view the DPP as traditional and entrenched in the political establishment, according to Newland.

Political opportunism

Despite losing the presidential election to Lai Ching-te from the ruling DPP, the Taiwan People's Party, established in 2019, gained eight seats in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan and now holds the balance of power in the upcoming parliament session starting February 1.

If the two major parties in a split parliament do not have a clear majority, one of them will need to form a coalition government with TPP.

Beijing's preferred political partner, the KMT, has 52 seats, while the ruling DPP has 51 and independents hold the remaining two.

According to Ming-sho Ho, a sociology professor at National Taiwan University who specializes in the working class and social movements, Ko's party is "ideologically unclear."

Ko once pledged to adhere to Tsai Ing-wen's foreign policy, but simultaneously asserted that "both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family" - these statements are inconsistent, he stated, referring to the current Democratic president of Taiwan from the DPP.

“Ko is indeed opportunistically arguing different things at the same time.”

The "1992 Consensus" has been rejected by the DPP, which was a tacit agreement between the KMT government and Chinese Communist Party officials that China and Taiwan are part of "one China," and the foundation of Beijing's approach to cross-Straits engagement.

Since the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan following its defeat in the Chinese civil war in 1949, China has never renounced its claim over the island, which has been self-governing ever since.

The reunification of Hong Kong with the mainland is viewed by Chinese President Xi Jinping as a historical necessity.

‘Sunflower effect’ waning?

Ko's involvement with Taiwan's recent activism, fueled by youth and civil society, may be viewed as opportunistic.

In recent decades, Taiwan's journey towards democracy and change has been characterized by student-led social movements, including the Wild Lily and Wild Strawberry movements, as well as the Sunflower movement.

In 1990, the Wild Lily movement was crucial to the first direct, democratic presidential and legislative elections in the self-governing island, while the Wild Strawberry movement emerged in 2008 as a result of protests against alleged police violence and abuse of power.

The Sunflower Movement, according to Ho from National Taiwan University, played a significant role in the DPP's success in the 2014 local and 2016 presidential elections. However, its impact gradually diminished over time.

In 2014, young protesters seized control of the national legislature during the Sunflower movement, protesting against the KMT government's attempt to ratify a free trade agreement with China in an undemocratic manner. Protesters were concerned that the agreement would increase China's influence over Taiwan.

Despite the fact that the core values of the Sunflower Movement, including the assertion of Taiwanese identity, rejection of incorporation into a China-centered economy, and young people's claim about rising inequalities, still remain, these values no longer empower the DPP, he stated.

Although the same values may have motivated TPP's success in the elections, Taiwanese voters have also supported third-party candidates in the past, but they often fail to challenge the KMT-DPP's hold on power.

Newland stated that if Ko and his party can collaborate to utilize this power efficiently, they will continue to be a significant political force, with TPP holding eight seats in parliament.

To achieve policy goals, the party must shift its focus from Ko as an individual and work together. However, it is uncertain whether this will occur in a party that has been centered on a single person until now.