A multipolar world is emerging, and Europe is failing to fill the void left by the decline of American power.
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine highlights the consequences of the weak European Union's inability to maintain its institutions.
- The conflict is necessary due to Ukrainian aspirations to join the EU and NATO, as directly stated by President Vladimir Putin.
- A more united Europe that is actively engaged on the global stage is what the world requires.
Since the beginning of the 21st Century, the world's relative stability has been maintained through a combination of the United States-led economic and political institutions, the growing influence of China, and the counterbalancing effect of Europe, which has strong economic ties not only with the U.S. and China but also with numerous other countries and regions such as Russia and the Middle East.
The absence of a prominent global role for Europe is increasingly felt in all regions since the retirement of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in December 2021.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine three months later served as an immediate driver for greater political unity within Europe. However, it also further isolated Europe as a political leader, particularly in its relationship with China and much of the non-aligned world.
Despite attempts to establish a unified and dominant role for Europe in areas such as trade, economic growth, and regional conflicts, including the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, the absence of a clear European leader on the global stage is leaving a significant gap.
The global post-war order and its institutions are increasingly being criticized by countries such as China, Russia, and the United States under Donald Trump, particularly with regards to institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the G7, and the United Nations.
The absence of European leadership on trade is particularly felt at the WTO, where the lack of U.S. leadership has resulted in a significant hit to the push for free trade. The U.K.'s Brexit vote in 2016 further weakened the EU's stance on trade, leading to negotiations that resulted in a significant step toward bureaucracy and protectionism. This has caused Britain to turn inward and away from a leading global role.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine highlights the consequences of the weak European Union's inability to maintain its institutions. President Putin cited Ukrainian aspirations to join the EU and NATO as reasons for the conflict.
Germany's prior role in engaging Russia was hindered by its reliance on Russian natural gas for economic engagement. However, when Germany aligned with other EU members and Britain against the invasion, the cutoff of Russian gas further diminished its economic leadership due to a decision made by Merkel in 2011 to remove Germany's nuclear reactors and rely on Moscow for natural gas.
The European economy is at a disadvantage compared to rising powers such as India and Southeast Asia due to the significantly higher energy prices and diminished German economic prospects.
The relationship between Europe and China as equal partners has been impacted by the United States' engagement with China. Prior to this, Europe had a strong demand for its products in China, particularly German cars, which allowed it to negotiate independently. However, the conflict over Ukraine and internal divisions within Europe have hindered Europe's ability to play a significant role in negotiations with China.
The Chinese were able to use Ursula von der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron's separate visits to China in April to play up European divisions, especially at home. The planned EU summit with China next month is coming on the heels of President Xi Jinping's much more heralded visit to the U.S. for the APEC Summit, where Europe was very much on the sidelines.
The instability in the Middle East and Africa, coupled with the lack of a clear European position and ability to act as a third-party broker, is evident. The internal divisions in many European countries over Hamas' terrorism and the resulting Israeli bombardment and civilian casualties are hindering Europe's ability to engage both sides and make a unified call for a cease-fire.
China has offered to mediate in the region and engage with regional states such as Qatar, while France has been outmaneuvered in its West African relationships by Russia, who is eager to exert influence through arms and energy sales, as well as supporting governments with military actions.
A more united Europe that is actively engaged on the global stage is what the world requires.
In a multipolar world where economic power is shifting to countries such as India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and others, Europe must play a crucial role in maintaining stability.
Kevin Klowden is the chief global strategist at the Milken Institute.
politics
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