Investing experts caution that while AI stocks have long-term potential, they may currently be overvalued.
The majority of individuals in the investment community appear to be optimistic about the future of artificial intelligence.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that tech firms, utilities, and other companies will invest over $1 trillion in AI infrastructure in the coming years. Meanwhile, the BlackRock Investment Institute believes that AI could bring about a transformation similar to the Industrial Revolution.
The tech and communication services sectors, which invest heavily in AI, make up about 44% of the S&P 500, and rank-and-file investors are also recognizing the potential of chipmaker Nvidia, which has seen a more than 175% increase in value over the past 12 months.
Be aware of the risk that investors have gotten out over their skis when there is a rapid rise, advises Christopher R. Jackson, senior vice president at UBS Wealth Management.
"He believes that the concern over the near term is how quickly AI has developed."
If the recent runups in AI-related tech stocks are based on anticipation of massive productivity gains, investors may face turbulence if the revolution does not occur as quickly or forcefully as expected, according to Jackson.
Can AI deliver on its promise?
Despite the enthusiasm surrounding the potential productivity benefits of generative AI, there are those who express doubt about its future success.
According to Jim Covello, head of global equity research at Goldman Sachs, the technology will have to be completely game-changing for firms to spend on generative AI applications. However, he notes that it is not quite there yet.
In an interview with Goldman analysts, he stated that AI technology is costly and justifying those expenses requires the technology to solve complex problems, which it is not designed for.
Daron Acemoglu, a professor at MIT, voiced his concerns about the timeline of AI transforming the economy during interviews with analysts.
According to him, since the emphasis and design of generative AI technology currently exist, these revolutionary alterations will not take place rapidly, and it is unlikely that any will occur within the next decade.
If the future is not as close as anticipated, companies that are investing heavily may face financial difficulties in the near future, according to Jackson.
He says that it's a risk to the thesis: Can companies continue to invest this amount of money without any immediate return?
Some companies have more financial flexibility than others. Large corporations with substantial cash reserves and stable profits can sustainably invest in significant AI projects, according to Jackson. Despite the opinions of AI skeptics, Goldman Sachs analysts predict a promising future for companies that manufacture the essential tools for the AI industry, such as microchip manufacturers.
According to Jackson, if the future of AI increasing business productivity is further away than previously anticipated, investor enthusiasm may decrease, which could negatively impact stock prices.
He emphasizes that it is especially true, given that large-company technology stocks are already trading at a significant premium to the rest of the market.
"Jackson says, "The concern is that the market is always looking forward. What future growth rates are already baked into the current prices, and how much of the story is priced into the stocks?" At these valuations, there is not much room for error."
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