Avoid this 'egregious' mistake to win 'The Price is Right,' advises Yale-trained game theory expert.

Watching "The Price is Right" can be addictive as contestants win money and prizes by guessing the value of merchandise.

As you flip through channels, you suddenly find yourself yelling the price of beans at the TV, hoping to see a contestant win a new car.

Justin L. Bergner provides tips and strategies for those who have considered appearing on the show or want to increase their chances of winning big.

"Solving The Price Is Right" is a book written by Bergner, which he describes as a "comprehensive guide" for viewers, providing strategies to win every game on the show.

Bergner, a game theory expert at Yale University and a lifelong TV show enthusiast, is a trade investment analyst.

The show's enduring popularity is due to its "engaging blend of knowledge, strategy, and chance," which is the hallmark of any successful game, he argues.

Analyzing hundreds of episodes from seasons 47 and 48, he identified the best winning strategies based on the math behind the show. Here are five basic strategies that can help you win.

1. When to stop spinning the big wheel in the Showcase Showdown

The Showcase Showdown features a colorful, oversized wheel with various denominations of $1 or less. Three contestants spin the wheel up to two times, aiming to be the closest to $1 without going over.

To increase your chances of winning, it's crucial to determine when to stop spinning the wheel. According to Bergner's research based on thousands of simulations, if your first spin is $0.65 or less, it's better to spin again. Otherwise, it's time to stop.

Rewritten sentence: The cat sat on the windowsill and watched the birds outside.

Bergner states that the rules are based on the probabilities of a wheel spin and will minimize the risk of a spin going over $1.

2. Where to drop the Plinko chip, exactly

Contestants can earn thousands of dollars by dropping chips into a large, peg-filled board with landing areas worth varying amounts in the cash game Plinko.

It is challenging to land a chip in the middle area worth $10,000, as the probability of doing so is only 14.1%, according to Bergner's observations. Nevertheless, by placing the chip directly in the center row, the chances of landing in the $10,000 landing area are approximately 23%, making it the best option.

To increase your chances of winning $10,000, Bergner advises placing the chip carefully into the row instead of dropping it from the top of the board.

If you're among the first three contestants on Contestants' Row, avoid underbidding.

Four contestants in the row bid on merchandise prices, aiming to be the closest to the actual retail price without exceeding it. The winner advances to play other games with bigger prizes.

The last bidder has a significant advantage in that they control whether they get the highest bid, with the odds of winning increasing as the order of bidding progresses. The first bidder has the least chance of winning, with only an 18% chance of success, while the last bidder has a 41% chance of winning.

According to Bergner, the underbidding by the first three contestants is "egregious."

The bidders' initial response is to believe they cannot win if they exceed the limit, rather than to consider the low probability of winning if they do not take a risk and go over. Additionally, for the first three bidders, the next bidder can always undercut their bid by $1, which increases their chances of being the closest to the actual retail price without surpassing the total.

According to Bergner, the underbidding bias results in the last bidder winning 64% of the time when they had the highest bid.

To counteract the underbidding bias, especially for pricier items over $1,000, the first three bidders should increase their planned bids by about 10% on average.

Bergner notes that people tend to remember sales prices for merchandise, which are typically lower than the retail prices used on the show.

If you're the last bidder on Contestants' Row, choose one of these two actions.

If you're the last bidder on Contestants' Row, you have a 41% chance of winning, which is roughly double the chances of each other contestant.

Bergner suggests either reducing previous bids by $1 or bidding $1 if you believe the previous bids are excessive. He asserts that you can always do either option.

5. Bid on the first showcase in the Showcase Showdown

In the final episode, two competitors compete in the Showcase Showdown. The contestant with the greater worth of their winnings can choose to bid on the first showcase or the second. The winner is determined by the contestant who bids closest to their showcase value without exceeding it.

Interestingly, winning the first showcase leads to better results, including higher win rates and greater earnings, regardless of the showcase's price.

Bergner believes that the "grass is greener" phenomenon may occur with the second showcase, as the bidder with the highest winnings passed on the first showcase 66% of the time. This could result in overcompensation for missing out on the first showcase, even though both are priced similarly on average.

If you're the first bidder, stick with bidding on the first showcase. However, if you're bidding second, try to account for the anxiety that comes with it and bid with a larger margin of safety, advises Bergner.

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