A French trader placed over $28 million in bets on the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election using four Polymarket accounts.

A French trader placed over $28 million in bets on the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election using four Polymarket accounts.
A French trader placed over $28 million in bets on the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election using four Polymarket accounts.
  • One person controls all four accounts that have recently taken a large pro-Trump stance on the political betting market Polymarket, according to confirmation from the platform.
  • The trader is a French national with a financial services background and extensive trading experience, the company stated.
  • Currently, Polymarket is prohibited for U.S. traders, but Kalshi and Interactive Brokers have introduced numerous political betting contracts.

This month, a significant change in the betting patterns on the political platform Polymarket, with over $28 million spent on the Republican nominee Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election, sparked intense scrutiny about four accounts.

On Thursday, Polymarket confirmed the suspicions of many experts: all four accounts are managed by a single trader.

The company spokesperson stated that the whale is a French national with a wealth of trading experience and a background in financial services.

The trader's accounts were funded from a well-known centralized crypto exchange, which other outlets have identified as the U.S.-based exchange Kraken.

The company maintained that it has not discovered any proof that the trader is attempting to manipulate Trump's chances of winning in the political betting market.

Polymarket stated that no evidence has been found to indicate that this user intentionally influenced the market through manipulation, based on an investigation conducted by third-party experts up to now.

The investigations firm Nardello & Company worked with Polymarket, as reported by The New York Times earlier Thursday morning.

The increased attention on Polymarket trades coincides with the growing significance of political betting markets during the 2024 election cycle.

Despite the fact that most national polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Kamala Harris, Trump's supporters have highlighted Polymarket's widening odds gap as evidence of Trump's growing support.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and a significant supporter of Trump's presidential campaign, stated on his social media platform X that betting markets are more reliable than polls because they involve real money.

In Thursday's statement, Polymarket emphasized that "prediction markets are not opinion polls—they measure the probability of an event happening rather than the percentage of people who plan to take an action, such as voting on Election Day."

The company stated that the misinformation about Polymarket and other prediction market platforms is mainly due to a fundamental misunderstanding.

According to Polymarket data, the total value of the accounts' position on the presidential election bet was approximately $28.6 million as of Thursday morning.

Among the top five pro-Trump bettors on Polymarket, the four accounts of Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie hold significant stakes.

The trader has placed over $7 million in bets that Trump will win the popular vote over Harris.

Political polls and odds and gambling platforms employ different methodologies, so they cannot be considered interchangeable.

The Polymarket spokesperson stated that the individual's directional position on the election is based on their personal views.

Despite the person's agreement not to open further accounts without notice, they still have not complied with the agreement.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission banned Polymarket for U.S. traders after a 2022 settlement.

A federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. ruled in favor of another betting platform, Kalshi, which subsequently launched numerous political betting contracts.

The CFTC is challenging Kalshi's right to host those bets.

by Kevin Breuninger

Politics