The Trump-Harris presidential race is fueling concerns about Taiwan's defense policy.

• The unpredictability and risks that Taiwan faces are emphasized by recent comments from former President Donald Trump, who is also the Republican nominee.
• The stance of Trump and Harris regarding defending Taiwan from a potential Chinese attack is unclear.
• It is predicted that the race will motivate Taiwan to enhance its military defense.

According to security and policy analysts, Taiwan is facing increasing pressure to enhance its defense capabilities and deterrence against China due to the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections in November.

Taiwan's foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung, stated last month that the self-governing island must prioritize its own defense and will likely continue to invest and modernize its military in response to threats from China, which views the island as its own.

The minister responded to Trump's statement that Taipei should compensate Washington for military protection. Trump argued that Taiwan does not contribute to the US and has taken all of its semiconductor business.

Experts pointed out that Trump's comments regarding Taiwan emphasized the uncertainty that lies ahead for the island, particularly following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris, who possesses less foreign policy experience.

'Unpredictable' Trump

Since the start of his first term, Trump has been "erratic and unpredictable" in his policy toward Taiwan, while Biden has been "more consistent," according to Stephen Naggy, professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, Japan.

While Biden has declared the U.S. would defend Taiwan, Trump has chosen "strategic ambiguity," according to Naggy.

In just days after his inauguration, Trump became the first U.S. president in decades to have direct communication with Taiwan's president.

In February 2016, he reportedly walked back on his suggestion that the U.S. may change its long-held position that Taiwan was part of "one China."

According to Lu-Chung Weng, a Political Science professor at Sam Houston State University, many in Taiwan believe that Trump's tough stance on China will lead to substantial support for the island.

The candidate has proposed a major escalation of his trade conflict with China.

The ruling party of Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific partners would welcome a tougher China containment stance by Trump 2.0, as stated by Muhammad Faizal, a research fellow at Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

He stated that they are concerned that Trump's "narrow-minded and deal-oriented approach" to international and defense relations, as demonstrated by his remarks about Taiwan compensating the U.S. for defense, could put them back on his geopolitical target list.

While experts predict that a second Trump administration will prioritize defending Taiwan, the extent to which they can influence policy is uncertain.

Richard Heydarian, a policy adviser and senior lecturer of international affairs at the University of the Philippines, stated that anyone who claims to know where the administration would go is incorrect, as the level of unpredictability would be higher than ever.

Harris' statecraft?

After Biden withdrew from the race due to age concerns, Harris emerged as the presumptive democratic nominee on the other side of the ballot.

Analysts predict that she will adhere to Biden's agenda and foreign policy to some extent.

Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, stated on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" last month that she views [Harris] as a continuity play in terms of foreign policy trends over the past several decades.

Longview Global's managing director and senior policy analyst, Dewardric McNeal, stated that there is a need for clarity on what Harris stands for in contrast to Biden. The first 100 days of her presidency will be closely monitored by Beijing if she were to win.

While serving as vice president, Harris has shown support for Taiwan and met with its new leader, Lai Ching-te, in 2022. Nevertheless, she would enter the presidency with less foreign policy experience than President Biden.

McNeal stated that although she expects some continuity in Biden's China policy, it is crucial to acknowledge the significant impact that personalities have on shaping, making, and executing policy.

He stated that Vice President Harris has a different approach to statecraft than Joe Biden.

Taiwan's defense measures

The pressure to strengthen Taiwan's deterrence is increasing due to the uncertainty posed by both candidates.

Since Lai's election in January, these efforts have been gaining momentum, with the U.S. elections adding more urgency, according to Ava Shen, who covers Taiwan and Chinese foreign policy and domestic politics at Eurasia Group.

Beijing views Lai, a Taiwanese politician from the Democratic Progressive Party, as a separatist, and he has maintained his predecessor's efforts to strengthen ties with Washington despite increasing military and political pressure from China.

During his first address, he highlighted the significance of cooperating with democracies and fortifying national security. Simultaneously, a one-year compulsory military service for males was implemented, a policy introduced under the leadership of former DPP president Tsai Ing-wen.

Taiwan has consistently increased its annual defense spending, reaching 2.6% of GDP this year, with a proposed increase for 2025, according to local reports.

Securing more weapons from the U.S. has been crucial in strengthening defense, with a backlog of $19 billion worth of already-purchased American weapons as of February this year, according to the Cato Institute.

In May, a group of U.S. lawmakers, comprising of both Democrats and Republicans, met with Lai and pledged that weapons and $2 billion of military aid for Taiwan would soon be provided.

According to a report from the Council for Foreign Relations, China's latest official defense budget was approximately 12 times that of Taiwan's, totaling $224 billion.

According to Kwei-Bo Huang, professor of diplomacy at Taiwan's National ChengChi University and secretary-general of the Taiwan-based Association of Foreign Relations, the government and society of Taiwan experience a certain level of unease or apprehension.

In the event of a Trump victory, Taiwan is predicted to maintain its defense budget at a minimum of 3% of its GDP, which is equivalent to what the former president's advisors are said to have recommended to NATO members.

Professor Lu-Chung of Sam Houston State University believes that the increased pressure on Taiwan from the U.S. elections will be beneficial for the country, as it must confront difficult realities.

"Regarding the self-defense plan, Taiwan will persist with its current actions, but closing the gaps across the Taiwan Strait is challenging," he stated.