A runoff election is held in Iran between reformist and ultra-conservative presidential candidates, with a record low voter turnout.

• On July 5, Iran will hold a runoff election with an ultra-right wing hardliner facing off against a reformist amidst ongoing economic, social, and geopolitical challenges.
• In the first round of the election on Friday, two candidates with contrasting approaches emerged as leaders, despite low voter turnout of approximately 40%.
• With 10.4 million votes, Masoud Pezeshkian emerged as the reformist candidate in the election, while Saeed Jalili, the hardline former nuclear negotiator, received 9.4 million votes.

On July 5, Iran will hold a runoff election with an ultra-right wing hardliner facing off against a reformist amidst economic, social, and geopolitical challenges.

After the initial election on June 28, no presidential candidate won a majority, prompting a runoff that will allow all 61 million eligible Iranian voters to cast their ballots.

In the 45-year history of the Islamic Republic, the lowest voter turnout of around 40% occurred on Friday. Despite this, two distinct candidates emerged victorious.

With 10.4 million votes, Masoud Pezeshkian emerged as the reformist candidate in the election, while Saeed Jalili, the hardline former nuclear negotiator, received 9.4 million votes.

On Friday, two other candidates in the race received 3.3 million and 206,000 votes, respectively. However, two other candidates had dropped out of the race on Thursday. All the candidates are considered deeply conservative and anti-Western, except for Pezeshkian.

Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator and a representative for Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the Supreme National Security Council, is one of the furthest-right wing candidates approved to run in the snap election and has had several failed attempts at running for office.

Meanwhile, Pezeshkian is the most moderate of Iran's presidential candidates. He previously served as health minister under Iran's last reformist president, Mohammad Khatami, from 1997 to 2005. Khatami and other reformist politicians have endorsed him.

Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old parliament member since 2008, is a member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the vice speaker of parliament. He aims to ease social restrictions, such as Iran's strict hijab law, and enhance relations with the West, including possibly resuming nuclear talks with world powers.

The upcoming election in Iran presents challenges for the country, including a struggling economy, widespread dissatisfaction, and harsh crackdowns on dissent. Additionally, Iran is grappling with high inflation, heavy Western sanctions, escalating tensions with the U.S., increased nuclear enrichment, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.

The surprise result for Pezeshkian, a reformist candidate with little name recognition, in the first round was unexpected according to many observers.

According to Nader Itayim, Mideast Gulf editor at Argus Media, Pezeshkian has a chance to win the presidency, but it will depend on voter turnout and his ability to motivate disenchanted voters to participate.

If Qalibaf and other conservatives no longer run, will the votes go to Jalili?

Itayim stated that he did not anticipate a higher voter turnout this election compared to the previous record-low turnout for a presidential vote, which occurred during the 2021 race that elected the hardline former president Raisi, resulting in a 48.8% turnout.

""I didn't expect it to fall to 40%, even with a reformist on the ballot," Itayim said."

The election outcome may affect Iran's policy towards the U.S., according to Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, despite the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei having a significant influence on its regional and foreign policy.

"Parsi stated that Pezeshkian advocates for direct talks with the U.S. and may reunite his foreign policy team that negotiated the nuclear deal. On the other hand, Jalili, a conservative who opposed the nuclear deal, remains opposed to it."