Ron Insana: Although the Fed may adopt a cautious stance on interest rate reductions, the economy remains strong.

Ron Insana: Although the Fed may adopt a cautious stance on interest rate reductions, the economy remains strong.
Ron Insana: Although the Fed may adopt a cautious stance on interest rate reductions, the economy remains strong.

Financial markets, particularly in the United States, are insatiable creatures that never seem content, even when they achieve their objectives.

In a "60 Minutes" interview that aired on Sunday, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the markets had already anticipated the Fed's decision to pivot toward cutting interest rates, which is expected to occur sometime later in the year. The central bank is planning to reduce short-term interest rates three times in 2024.

According to Powell, many members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe that the time for rate cuts is near, as he told Scott Pelley on "60 Minutes."

Powell stated in an interview that most of our participants believe it is appropriate for us to begin easing our restrictive stance by cutting rates this year, except for a couple. However, we are still trying to determine the best time to do so, taking into account the overall context.

A good economy and a cautious approach

Powell's observation in his interview, that the economy is showing signs of a rebound, is supported by continued strength in the labor market, solid consumer spending, and the beginnings of a rebound in residential real estate.

“This is a good economy,” the Fed chief told Pelley.

Although the S&P 500 pulled back from record levels and interest rates jumped on Monday, the Fed's victory in the post-pandemic war on inflation should be celebrated by both Wall Street and Main Street.

I did not anticipate that the Fed would reduce interest rates in March, let alone six times in 2020.

I anticipate central bank policymakers will cut three to four times before the year is out, with the first cut likely occurring in May.

I believe the cycle of interest rates going up an escalator and coming down in an elevator will actually work in reverse.

The Fed was late to begin tightening monetary policy after the pandemic.

The central bank will likely either ride an escalator back to the first floor or walk down the stairs when cutting rates this year and into 2025.

If the economy slows down or the unemployment rate increases rapidly, that could change the situation.

The reverse could also be true.

If economic growth exceeds expectations and increases inflationary pressures, the Fed may choose to maintain or increase interest rates.

But the latter scenario is not the central bank’s base case.

An indispensable leader

Powell mentioned in his interview that commercial real estate pressures could lead to smaller banks closing, resulting in consolidation and shuttering among institutions with significant exposure to troubled debts in that sector of the economy.

Powell expressed doubt that the current situation poses the same level of systemic risk as the Great Financial Crisis in 2008.

The Fed chair highlighted that the U.S. has a thriving, cutting-edge economy and has been a vital world leader.

He stated that our interaction with the world greatly benefits our nation.

The ongoing violence in the Middle East seems to be causing less concern among key markets, as they appear to be factoring in a resolution to the conflict.

Despite the disruption in shipping and the potential for a sudden increase in energy prices, energy costs have remained stable.

U.S. production is offsetting global supply concerns, causing West Texas Intermediate crude futures to trade at approximately $72 per barrel.

Natural gas, heating oil and gasoline prices have also cooled considerably.

Wall Street should take heart.

Despite all variables, the U.S. is doing well at the moment.

"Be happy, don't worry," Bobby McFerrin would say.

— CNBC contributor Ron Insana is chief market strategist at Dynasty Financial Partners.

by Ron Insana

opinion