Despite January's turbulent beginning, 2024 may yet prove to be a strong year for the stock market, according to Ron Insana.

Some traders are worried about the shaky start of stocks in 2024, but they shouldn't let this volatility discourage them from the potential rewards of the year.

Traders are concerned that the poor performance of stocks since 2024 is a sign of things to come on Wall Street.

The indicator, which has gained popularity among stock traders, does not appear to possess the predictive power that was once attributed to it.

While the correlation between the first five days' performance and the year's outcome was 69% from 1950 to present, recent data shows this indicator to be less reliable.

The "January barometer" predicts that the market will follow the same trend as January.

Over the course of my 40-year career, I have respected pattern recognition analysis for predicting annual market performance. However, I have grown weary of relying on these methods as definitive predictors.

Time in the market vs. timing the market

Those trading the markets have found seasonal trends, presidential cycles, and other measured behaviors to be useful guides.

Despite the occasional downturns, the stock market has had positive returns 75% of the time annually since 1926.

Long-term investors should remain invested in the market rather than engaging in "swing trading" the moves. This advice does not apply to individual nor professional traders.

It is believed that spending more time in the market is more crucial than accurately predicting market timing.

Numerous individuals and professionals invest in stocks, exchange traded funds, or options.

An increasing number of individual investors are trading with greater frequency than in years past.

Combining strong fundamental research, technical analysis, and wise counsel may yield superior outcomes than adhering to a single or two "rules" that are eventually exploited.

How the new year could play out

I believe that the market will likely rise in 2024 due to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates, which will provide a significant boost to stocks.

The Fed's 2% target for inflation is being approached by some measures.

Earnings appear to be improving for major corporations, yet another favorable factor.

Consumers continue to spend freely as the latest retail sales report clearly shows.

It is said that approximately $8.8 trillion is currently sitting idle in money market mutual funds and certificates of deposit.

Once the Fed starts cutting short-term rates, one can imagine a shift from high-yielding Treasurys to stocks.

According to Charles Schwab's 2016 analysis, the fourth year of a president's term has the second-best performance of the period, while the third year is generally the best, as seen in 2023.

Naturally, there are potential obstacles to a good year on Wall Street.

The financial system could be pressured by turmoil in commercial real estate and geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

Inflation could rebound due to various shocks, including rising shipping costs in the Middle East and the possibility of global conflict if economically weak China uses its military power.

Despite the global economic downturn, the U.S. markets remain stable and its economic growth is still ahead of many other countries.

U.S. stocks are expected to perform well in 2024, whether through trading or investing.

The biggest challenge for traders is determining which stocks will be successful, as seasonal patterns cannot provide a definitive answer.

— CNBC contributor Ron Insana is chief market strategist at Dynasty Financial Partners.