Inflation is not solely due to the actions of the Fed, as policy hawks are mistakenly assuming.
Financial media is being inundated with "I told you so's" from academics, Wall Street economists, market strategists, and others regarding inflation.
The Federal Reserve and the federal government are accused of overstimulating the economy during the pandemic, resulting in record-high inflation.
It is reported that the supply is unable to meet the demand due to an excess of money seeking an abundance of products.
The inflation we are currently experiencing is not primarily due to supply chain disruptions, but rather to monetary and fiscal policies that have gone awry.
I understand the premise – but I disagree.
A risky time that few had anticipated
Two years ago, there was a call on policymakers to replace the lost income that resulted from an unexpected lockdown that lasted longer than anticipated and caused disruptions in goods supply, labor supply, and service sector activity.
Despite some claiming to have had the inflation argument right all along, no one accurately predicted the emergence of the Covid delta variant, which prolonged sheltering-in-place and remote work. Additionally, no one anticipated vaccine resistance and refusal, which added to the global and domestic death toll. Furthermore, no one predicted the lack of vaccines in some goods-producing nations.
The emergence of the omicron variant, the near-permanent restructuring of labor supply, and the renewed lockdowns in China and Hong Kong have caused significant disruptions in global supply chains.
No "inflationista" predicted the war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions that intensified all the pandemic and post-pandemic issues we've faced in 2022.
Those setbacks were most certainly not on my 2022 bingo card.
Despite the Federal Reserve's heroic efforts to address the economic wound, many financial observers have placed blame on the Fed in recent times.
Many are calling for the Fed to remove the Band-Aid, arguing that reducing normalized demand to match global supply is the solution to our issues.
Of course, the Fed should be normalizing policy.
The central bank should withdraw all its stimulus immediately, as demanded by the hawks, through a series of half-point rate hikes and a rapid reduction of its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet.
The Biden administration has shifted its focus from the $1.75 trillion dollar "Build Back Better" budget to one that reportedly focuses on deficit reduction. Let's pause.
Weighing the causes of inflation
The stock market may experience a bear market rebound if the Federal Reserve becomes aggressive in fighting inflation, despite not being the initial cause, and if the economy and corporate earnings grow robustly enough to offset between seven and 11 rate increases in the next 15 to 18 months.
I have never witnessed anything like this in the 38 years I have spent covering financial markets and studying market history.
The conflict in Russia is intensifying, and the situation may deteriorate further as the sanctions imposed on the country become more stringent.
Some Federal Reserve inflation hawks may be correct, but for the wrong reasons.
That does not count as being correct.
After the Great Financial Crisis, many people made the same argument, but they were incorrect for over a decade. However, some of them changed their views with each new data point that emerged.
While they may be correct about inflation from a mechanical standpoint, the ongoing supply shortages, labor disruptions, energy shocks, and global instability suggest that they may soon be proven wrong economically.
The Fed's decision to raise interest rates may have been a philosophical victory, but it could also result in Americans paying dearly for it through inflation.
It is more likely that the pandemic and Russian President Vladimir Putin are the causes.
— Ron Insana is a CNBC contributor and a senior advisor at Schroders.
opinion
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