The U.S. grants Ukraine a brief respite, but the country remains under pressure to acquire weapons quickly.

• After months of delay, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a $61 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine over the weekend, providing relief.
• The bill, having passed the House, now moves to the Senate, where it is predicted to be approved this week, allowing President Biden to sign it into law.
• Ukraine urgently needs more air defense systems, artillery, and ammunition to reverse the course of the war.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a $61 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, providing much-needed relief after months of delays and opposition from conservative politicians.

The Senate, with a Democratic majority, will approve the bill that provides extra aid for Israel and Taiwan this week, and President Biden will sign it into law.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed gratitude to U.S. House lawmakers for passing the bill, stating that it would prevent the war from spreading, save countless lives, and strengthen both nations.

On Sunday, Zelenskyy urged the Senate to pass the bill as quickly as possible, warning that "the time between political decisions and actual damage to the enemy on the front lines, between the package's approval and our warriors' strengthening, must be as short as possible."

Ukraine urgently needs more air defense systems, artillery, and ammunition to defend against Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine.

Immediately, new aid and supplies must be sent to Ukraine to bring new life and morale into its beleaguered military campaign, according to defense analysts who argue that funding could help.

Analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War think tank believe that Ukrainian forces may face additional setbacks in the coming weeks as they wait for U.S. security assistance to stabilize the front. However, they predict that Ukraine will be able to blunt the current Russian offensive if the resumed US assistance arrives promptly.

The ISW predicts that Russian forces will increase their offensive operations and use more missiles and drones in the upcoming weeks, taking advantage of the limited Ukrainian military resources.

Ukraine's immediate priority is to restock its artillery, air defense systems, and missiles, which have been depleted by recent Russian airstrikes, particularly those targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

The military sciences director at RUSI, Matthew Savill, pointed out that although acquiring new equipment may cause a delay, the Pentagon has pre-prepared some military hardware for donation to Ukraine in order to reduce delivery time.

Savill stated that it is unlikely that this action will immediately match the intensity of Russian fire, but it will help reduce the difference.

Stay of execution?

While the latest aid tranche will likely boost Ukraine's military operations and morale, funding remains a contentious issue. Analysts warn that future U.S. aid is not guaranteed, especially with the uncertain outcome of the presidential election later this year.

RUSI's Savill stated that while the package will be beneficial for the Ukrainian military, the primary objective is to use the funding to stabilize the Ukrainian position for the current year and commence preparations for operations in 2025.

According to Savill, the certainty of funding through 2024 and 2025 will enable the Ukrainians to plan their defense for this year. However, if European supplies of ammunition also become available, further planning and funds will be necessary for 2025, as there is a U.S. election between now and then.

The continuation of U.S. aid for Ukraine under a second term for former President Donald Trump is uncertain due to his ambiguous and unsubstantiated statements on Ukraine and how he would end the war within 24 hours.

An associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House and a senior sovereign strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, Timothy Ash, supports the idea of using billions of dollars' worth of frozen Russian assets to help fund Ukraine. He stated that the latest aid does not alter the fact that Ukraine will still require substantial funding.

Ash stated in an email Monday that the passage of the $61 billion House package does not alter the narrative regarding ongoing concerns about long-term Western funding for Ukraine.

To ensure Ukraine's victory in war and successful reconstruction, the West must allocate the $330 billion of immobilised assets, according to him.

Race against the clock

Last Saturday, senior Western defense officials portrayed a dire outlook of Ukraine's artillery and ammunition deficiencies in the east of the country. They cautioned that soldiers were resorting to conserving their shells due to the shortages.

Earlier in April, a top U.S. general informed Congress that Russia was firing five artillery shells for every one fired by Ukrainian forces, and this difference could increase in the upcoming weeks.

The significant difference in armaments and personnel in eastern Ukraine, often referred to as a "meat grinder" because of Russia's strategy of deploying large numbers of inexperienced soldiers to the frontline in an attempt to outnumber Ukrainian forces, has allowed Russian troops to gain ground recently, strengthening their efforts to seize control of the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

The U.S. aid package for Ukraine has been criticized by Russia as being likely to cause more violence in the conflict.

On Saturday, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin Spokesperson, stated that the U.S. House of Representatives' decision to provide additional aid to Ukraine would make the United States wealthier, harm Ukraine even more, and result in the deaths of more Ukrainians, all due to the actions of the Kyiv regime. Meanwhile, Maria Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry's spokesperson, claimed that the new aid package would worsen the global crisis.

Dmitry Polyansky, Russia's First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, criticized the funding, stating that it was "nothing to celebrate" and that Ukraine would "function a little longer, more money will end up in their pockets, more weapons will be stolen, and tens of thousands of Ukrainians will go into the meat grinder."

"Despite the new aid package and the efforts of their supporters in the US and NATO, the inevitable end of the Kyiv regime is imminent," he stated.