Several possible outcomes of the Israel-Hamas conflict include bloodshed, destruction, and a distant hope for peace.
- The ongoing violence between Israel and Hamas has raised concerns about the duration of the conflict and the potential damage it may cause.
- The Gaza Strip is expected to see a significant increase in deaths and injuries as Israel launches attacks.
- Although some people are advocating for peace, it seems that a cease-fire may be unattainable, as the conflict appears to be heading towards an escalation.
The ongoing violence between Israel and Hamas has caused many geopolitical experts to doubt if the conflict will ever end and if peace can be achieved between the two sides.
Israeli troops are gathering at the border of Gaza, hinting at a possible ground operation, as the region remains under blockade by Israel, which has cut off essential supplies to its 2.3 million residents following a weekend attack by Hamas.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas is expected to become more destructive, with an uncertain outcome, according to Middle East experts. There is pessimism among civilians about the prospects of a near-term de-escalation in the violence, with them likely to bear the brunt of the fighting.
According to Yossi Mekelberg, an associate fellow at Chatham House, there is no doubt in his mind that the situation will deteriorate before it improves.
"It is uncertain, but it seems probable that there will be a ground campaign. Israel has taken time to prepare and is now ready on the borders with Lebanon to contain the situation, and with Gaza to attack," he stated.
On Oct. 7, Hamas carried out a lethal attack on Israel, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of civilians and the capture of approximately 130 hostages. Israel, taken aback, mobilized its reservists and launched intense airstrikes on the Gaza Strip.
The military announced on Tuesday that it had regained control of the Gaza-Israel border, following the evacuation of Israel's border communities.
The al-Qassam armed wing of Hamas fired hundreds of missiles at the southern Israeli city of Ashkelon, claiming it was a response to the displacement of civilians.
The total number of people killed in the ongoing violence is over 2,600, and the number of injured is approximately 9,500, as of 7:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
The Israel-Hamas war poses a critical risk of a wider, regional conflict involving Israel's neighbors and enemies, according to experts.
CNBC examines various possible outcomes of the conflict, including a weakened and possibly destroyed Hamas, an international intervention, and a cease-fire.
A degraded Hamas, at any cost?
Israel has pledged to "eliminate" Hamas completely, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing to "annihilate" them.
The IDF is expected to launch a ground invasion of Gaza soon, with little mercy shown, as Israel pledges to "crush and destroy" what it considers Hamas strongholds.
Yoav Gallant, Israel's Defense Minister, addressed soldiers near the Gaza border on Tuesday, stating that Hamas desired a shift and would receive one. He added that what existed in Gaza would no longer remain.
From the air, we began our offensive and will later launch an attack from the ground. We have controlled the area since Day 2 and our offensive will only intensify, as stated in the comments reported by Reuters.
According to analysts, the language used by Israeli authorities suggests that there will be no return to the previous pattern of sporadic violence, rocket attacks, skirmishes, and brief but intense conflicts between Israel and Hamas, which have characterized the last 18 years. Since Hamas took full control of Gaza in 2007, following Israel's withdrawal from the territory in 2005.
The Israel-Hamas conflict had become a routine with Hamas terrorism followed by predictable Israeli reprisals, but this routine has ended, according to William F. Wechsler, senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, in his analysis this week.
"Ground operations will accompany air strikes in the Israeli military response, resulting in a significantly degraded Hamas and substantial destruction within Gaza," he stated.
As 9/11 was a long-term strategic mistake for Al Qaeda, 10/7 is likely to be a similar mistake for Hamas.
Ehud Barak, the former Israeli Prime Minister, stated on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that Israeli ground forces would soon take control of the Gaza Strip. However, he acknowledged that capturing Gaza City could be challenging due to the need for ground forces to search building by building, which could take several weeks.
Barak acknowledged the uncertainty of what would occur in Gaza after the operation, suggesting the possibility of another Arab country temporarily taking control of the territory's administration. Currently, the primary objective is to disable Hamas' military capabilities, according to Barak.
The concern of humanitarian organizations and observers like Chatham House's Mekelberg regarding the human cost of Israel's attempt to eradicate Hamas, given that Palestinians are currently unable to leave Gaza, is of grave concern.
If a ground campaign is launched, many more Palestinians will be killed, as has already happened to civilians on their side, according to Mekelberg.
No one can predict the exact number of casualties in war, but I hope that the destruction of infrastructure and civilian casualties is minimized. Despite the fact that war often results in loss of life and destruction, it is crucial to recognize that no one benefits from these outcomes. We must all accept the consequences of war.
He stated that we are in a new situation after the events in Israel, and the level of tolerance has dropped to zero.
Gaza has already seen neighborhoods flattened, and water supplies are running low. The U.N. reported on Wednesday that 263,000 people have been displaced across Gaza, with thousands of homes damaged or destroyed.
Escalation, within limits
The likelihood of Israel's neighbors, who are often hostile to the Israeli state, becoming involved in the current war is uncertain. Hamas has allies in Syria and Lebanon, and Iran supports it financially.
Already, Israeli forces have targeted sites in southern Lebanon, claiming they belong to Hezbollah, an Iranian-affiliated armed group with the goal of destroying Israel, like Hamas.
On Israel's northern border, Syria is an unpredictable entity, but there are hopes it can be largely controlled by Russia, with whom Israel has warmish relations.
The conflict has put nearby countries, such as Saudi Arabia, in an awkward position.
Saudi Arabia and Israel, despite their shared animosity towards Iran and Hamas, were considering reconciliation prior to Hamas' attack. However, Riyadh is now facing pressure from its Muslim community to back the Palestinian people.
Western nations have pledged to support Israel with both moral and material assistance, with the U.S. already sending a shipment of weapons.
On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed the ongoing U.S. support to Netanyahu while in Tel Aviv, saying, "We're here, we're not going anywhere."
Some international partners may withdraw their support if the conflict in Israel escalates and causes a massive humanitarian crisis or involves neighboring countries.
According to Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, the upcoming days and weeks will not only shape Israel's security future but may also determine its position in the region.
The international community will provide Israel with some bandwidth to launch a retaliatory strike, but as the war continues and more carnage occurs, the community will urge both sides to de-escalate.
Unless Jerusalem sees that it has accomplished some of its goals, it is unlikely to agree to that request, he pointed out.
Saudi Arabia may privately support Israel's efforts to quash Hamas, but the Arab world is unlikely to do so, especially as media outlets showcase images of death and destruction in Gaza and Lebanon.
Peace a distant prospect
Diplomacy and a two-state solution are the only ways to achieve peace and stability, as called for by countries such as China and Russia in relation to Israel.
It seems unlikely that a cease-fire will be achieved, as the conflict may escalate into an active phase on the ground.
One of the main obstacles to peace, according to geopolitical analysts, is the absence of international concern about achieving an outcome before the conflict began.
Mekelberg stated that there should be as much international interest in achieving peace as there is when there is bloodshed. If this were the case, he believes that disasters could have been averted and everyone should take responsibility for it.
Mekelberg stated that those who advocated for peace, like him, were similar to "voices in the wilderness" as they hoped that the current violence could serve as a catalyst for a renewed push for peace and "an alternative way of coexistence" for Israelis and Palestinians.
Amid the violence in Israel and Gaza, the only discussion is about the victors and the defeated.
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