Despite ongoing conflict with Russia, Ukraine may not achieve the victory it desires.

• After months of political wrangling, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with a $61 billion aid package.
• As aid for Ukraine remains uncertain, there are growing concerns about what "victory" the country could realistically achieve against Russia.
• Analysts suggest that a "common" vision of a "cease-fire" or "victory" is necessary for successful conversations.

As another batch of U.S. aid arrives in Ukraine, Kyiv can rest assured that its troops will receive new weapons and equipment to continue battling Russia's advancing forces.

Analysts are uncertain about what "victory" Ukraine could realistically achieve against Russia, given that Russia has mobilized its industries for war and can call upon hundreds of thousands more men to fight.

Although additional aid enables Ukraine to continue battling Russian forces in the short term, a "victory" in the near future is unlikely. Moreover, what "victory" entails for Ukraine or its allies could be a source of contention.

According to Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at Teneo, while renewed U.S. military support may prevent a potential military defeat in 2024, Kyiv's overreliance on U.S. military aid has become increasingly clear in recent months, posing significant risks.

The lack of a common vision between Kyiv and its allies about what constitutes a Ukrainian "victory" and the necessary steps and resources to achieve it was pointed out.

"Despite officially aiming to liberate all territories occupied since 2014, few believe this is realistic in the near-to-medium term."

The possibility of discussions about alternative settlement options acceptable to Kyiv may increase in 2024, according to Tursa, as the percentage of Ukrainians willing to consider territorial concessions in exchange for peace continues to rise.

Kyiv declares that it will regain control over all territories seized by Russia since 2014, including Crimea and four Ukrainian regions that were illegally annexed in 2022. Russia has attempted to assimilate these regions by issuing Russian passports, pensions, and benefits while erasing Ukrainian culture, history, and language from public spaces and schools.

Russia's authority, legitimacy, and legacy are tied to its success in Ukraine, and it is unlikely to withdraw its troops from southern and eastern Ukraine without winning. This is especially true in eastern Ukraine, where it has received support from pro-Russian separatists for over a decade.

Frankness needed

An "honest" dialogue must occur between allies and Ukraine to determine what a victory could entail, as well as the concessions and compromises that may be necessary in any peace agreement or ceasefire.

Oleksandr Musiyenko, a Kyiv-based military expert and head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies, stated that while he wants to see the liberation of Russian-occupied territory, it is difficult to achieve at this time. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss this issue with partners and establish unity with them.

According to Musiyenko, the recent injection of aid from the U.S. has boosted morale, but Ukraine's leadership is not interested in discussing a potential end to the war that doesn't result in an outright victory.

Politicians and people in Ukraine are sensitive when discussing this topic, but it is crucial to be honest with the Ukrainian people and our Western partners, he stated on CNBC Wednesday.

Ukraine's ideal situation would be to liberate all of its land from Russian soldiers and join NATO and the EU, but I'm certain we must discuss various possibilities, Musiyenko stated. The effectiveness of the U.S.'s latest $61 billion aid package and the weapons and equipment it provides to Ukraine will significantly impact the battlefield. Additionally, the level of support Ukraine receives after the U.S. presidential election later this year will play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

If Ukraine receives robust security and defense guarantees, then weakened, depleted, and pushed-back Russian forces in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions could open a space for talks and an ally-backed cease-fire, according to Musiyenko.

A balance of powers could lead to a prolonged cease-fire, although it would be uneasy, he said.

According to him, if such a scenario occurs, Ukrainians will not have as much power to liberate old territory, as per the international border, and Russians will not have as much power to occupy more territory.

In this scenario, Ukraine will maintain its independence and sovereignty, Western support will remain high, and we can communicate with our partners.

"No one will ever agree that this [occupied territory] could be a Russian territory. However, we will simply wait like Eastern and Western Germany did before their reunification in 1990. This is the most likely outcome we can realistically expect."