Jim Cramer predicts that the market may experience a rally following its recent "short-term volatility spike," according to charts.
- On Wednesday, CNBC's Jim Cramer predicted that the market will experience a bottom and subsequent rally by Monday, based on the analysis of Option Pit founder and volatility expert Mark Sebastian.
- Mark Sebastian's interpretation of the charts indicates that we are currently experiencing a short-term volatility spike, which will soon end, and we will return to the post-March bottom environment where stocks can easily rise.
On Wednesday, CNBC's Jim Cramer predicted that the market will experience a bottom and subsequent rally by Monday, based on the analysis of Option Pit founder and volatility expert Mark Sebastian.
Mark Sebastian's interpretation of the charts indicates that we are currently experiencing a short-term volatility spike, which will soon end, and we will return to the post-March bottom environment where stocks can easily rise.
Cramer initially discussed the correlation between the S&P 500 and the CBOE Volatility Index, commonly referred to as a measure of fear.
According to Cramer, when the volatility index reflects fear, it's typical for it and the S&P to move in opposite directions. However, if they move in the same direction, it raises concerns about the sustainability of the market's trajectory. This occurred on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.42%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.97%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 2.22%.
In early 2022, the S&P fell while the VIX rose sharply, with Cramer noting that the VIX did not surpass its previous lows despite the S&P briefly increasing.
The VIX confirmed the negativity that Sebastian saw, as it went higher with every new low for the S&P, even though the S&P recovered in the last week of January and rolled over again in February.
Sebastian pointed out that on March 14, the S&P came very close to its previous low from March 8, but the VIX decreased to lower levels on the 14th compared to the 8th, indicating that investor fears were decreasing.
Sebastian believes there's "more room to run higher" based on Cramer's analysis of the S&P 500 and VIX's recent movements, according to Cramer.
Cramer stated that the S&P 500's most recent high was 4,631 on March 29th, and the VIX closed at 18.90. Although the S&P failed to reach that same level at its highs on Monday, the VIX hit a lower level there, reaching 18.57. This indicates that the market went down, but the VIX also went down.
He stated that although the action taken today has helped to reduce the fear, it is still gradually fading away.
Cramer stated that while Sebastian believes the market will begin to rally again by Monday, it is unlikely that the S&P will reach new heights.
Cramer believes we are experiencing a two-to-three day VIX spike, a fast but short-lived move. He also thinks the S&P could reach 4,700 again before Easter.
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