The sales of luxury homes worth $100 million are predicted to double this year as the market for trophy properties recovers.

• New reports indicate that sales of $100 million homes are expected to double this year due to the surge in financial markets and the anticipation of interest rate cuts, leading to a recovery in the ultra-luxury real estate market.
• Despite the national housing market's struggles with high mortgage rates and limited supply, the comeback of the local real estate market is remarkable.
• Luxury real estate deals are occurring in Manhattan, Palm Beach, and San Francisco.

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New reports indicate that sales of $100 million homes are expected to double this year due to the surge in financial markets and the anticipation of interest rate cuts, leading to a recovery in the ultra-luxury real estate market.

Six U.S. homes have sold for more than $100 million as of July 15, according to Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman data. If the sales pace continues, it will more than double last year's total and likely surpass the record of nine homes sold for over $100 million in 2021.

Despite being a small group, the nine-figure club is experiencing a strong rebound in the ultra-luxury real estate market after its decline in 2023. This comeback is in stark contrast with the national housing market, which is still grappling with high mortgage rates and a shortage of supply.

According to Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the appraisal and research firm, there is a significant increase in the pace of sales, which is not observed in the broader housing market.

In the past month, Manhattan witnessed two significant real estate transactions. The tallest residential building in the world, Central Park Tower, sold its penthouse for $115 million to an unknown buyer. Additionally, the penthouse of the Aman New York was sold for a reported $135 million to Russian-born billionaire Vladislav Doronin, who founded the development company that constructed the building, effectively purchasing it from his own company.

In May, Tarpon Island, Palm Beach, Florida's only private island, was sold for $150 million, while James Jannard, the founder of Oakley, sold his Malibu mansion for $210 million, breaking the record for the most expensive home ever sold in California.

In San Francisco, the ultra-luxury market is experiencing a surge, with Laurene Powell Jobs, the widow of Steve Jobs, recently purchasing the most expensive home ever sold in the city for $70 million. The 17,000-square-foot manse is located in Pacific Heights and is situated between neighbor Larry Ellison on one side and Apple design guru Jony Ive on the other.

Through June, sales of homes priced at $5 million or more increased by 13% compared to the same period last year, indicating signs of strength in the luxury market, according to Redfin.

According to Mike Golden, co-founder of Chicago-based @properties and Christie's International Real Estate, the start of the year was much stronger and more robust than anyone anticipated.

High-end markets across the country are experiencing strong demand, with home sales over $10 million in Naples, Florida, increasing by 14% in the first quarter, and sales over $4 million in Montana surging by 50% through early May, according to reports from Christie's and PureWest Christie's International Real Estate.

The revival of sales in the San Francisco Bay area can be attributed to the recent surge in artificial intelligence development.

In 2024, my biggest surprise has been the high number of qualified buyers who are able and willing to pay premium prices for ultra-elite properties, indicating the significant liquidity at the top of the market, according to Nathalie de Saint Andrieu, a broker in the Bay Area.

The high-end economy is driven by different forces than the broader housing market, with the national real estate market being affected by mortgage rates and affordability issues. The ultra-wealthy can use cash to buy their homes, especially when rates are high. In Manhattan, two-thirds of deals this spring were in cash, with the share even higher for the luxury segment.

The stock market's record-breaking performance is driving the confidence and cash of wealthy homebuyers, leading to increased spending on real estate.

""The global market is more of a barometer for the health of global financial markets, and the ultra-luxury housing segment is almost entirely disconnected from the typical housing market," Miller stated."

The increase in inheritances from the $80 trillion Great Wealth Transfer is contributing to sales, as stated by Daniel de la Vega, CEO of One Commercial Real Estate and president of One Sotheby's International Realty. He has observed a significant surge in South Florida's millennial and Gen Z buyers purchasing condos with family trusts.

"Some of them are coming in and buying branded residences," he said, "as they want new development."

Another trend boosting ultra-luxury sales is the demand for expansive homes, according to de la Vega. Post-Covid, affluent buyers seek to incorporate all their preferred lifestyle amenities within their homes, including gyms, spas, workspaces, entertainment areas, and showcases for their art and car collections.

The cost of luxury condos in South Florida has increased by 33% this year, to $3,451 per square foot, while single-family home prices have risen by 11% to $2,485 per square foot.

""As the property size increased, the price per square foot decreased, but now the opposite is true. The numbers we're seeing are unprecedented and astronomical," de la Vega stated."

The high-end real estate market typically pauses before presidential elections, but strong financial markets are currently outweighing any election concerns. However, this is not a certainty in the second half.

According to Miller, based on the actions we're observing this year, it appears that the election isn't significantly impacting the super-luxury market.

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