The imposition of tariffs by Trump has prompted China to accelerate the shipment of goods to the US.

• Due to uncertainty about new tariffs from President-elect Trump and potential supply chain congestion, shippers are moving cargo bound for the U.S. market ahead of time. This includes a range of items, from apparel and sneakers to home appliances and critical components for infrastructure projects.
• The CNBC Supply Chain Survey reveals that products from China led the way in the movement of freight, and this aligns with recent Chinese government trade data indicating an increase in exports in December.
• Companies in the United States are shifting towards non-Chinese suppliers and manufacturing operations in countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Malaysia, Kenya, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Taiwan, and Turkey.

The U.S. supply chain has been threatened by the possibility of port workers striking across the East and Gulf Coasts, but a tentative deal has been reached to prevent a strike. However, shippers have been stockpiling products for the U.S. market in anticipation of aggressive trade tariffs being imposed by President-elect Trump.

According to the latest CNBC Supply Chain Survey, 78% of respondents reported that shipping clients requested to move up freight in anticipation of both the increased tariff threat and the potential strike. Freight was being directed to ports on both the East and West Coast. The survey, which included executives from member companies in the National Retail Federation and American Apparel and Footwear Association, as well as executives at logistics companies including DHL and ITS Logistics, was conducted from Dec. 11-Jan. 6.

The Chinese government's recent trade data shows that products from China led the way in the pulling forward of freight in 2024, with Europe coming in second and Mexico, Vietnam, and Malaysia tied for third. Additionally, India and South America were also areas of product origin being frontloaded.

The main concern of shippers at the moment is timing, as stated by Sri Laxmana, vice president of global forwarding for the Americas at C.H. Robinson. This is due to the recent statement from Trump on declaring a national emergency to implement his tariff plan, which would immediately trigger the tariffs. Additionally, there have been reports that the Trump economic team is considering a gradual implementation of tariffs over several months to prevent a sudden inflationary spike.

"According to Laxmana, historically, full implementation of tariffs through administrative action has taken months. Some shippers have been proactively shipping ahead of a potential second U.S. port strike and an increase in tariffs on Chinese-imported goods. Now, with the possibility of an increase in tariffs on Mexican and Canadian-imported goods, shippers are considering moving up their freight timelines."

ITS Logistics' vice president of global supply chain, Paul Brashier, stated that companies began pulling trans-pacific inventory earlier than usual, as early as late November.

Brashier stated that not only did inventory from China get pulled ahead, but all transpacific origins were affected due to the concern that there would be an influx of additional freight as tariffs were announced. This includes e-commerce goods, small appliances, soft goods, and replacement parts.

Laxmana pointed out that the lack of specifics about Trump's trade plans before his inauguration is not a cause for concern, as front-loading does not happen quickly and is largely dependent on the supplier and production's ability to increase production.

According to William George, director of research at Import Genius, who reviewed retail customs records, many big companies began frontloading their efforts earlier last year. Specifically, Walmart's China-originating U.S. maritime imports increased by over 33% from 2023 to 2024, while Columbia Sportswear's year-over-year imports rose by over 50% from 2023 to 2024 and over 80% during the March to December period, when frontloading activity is believed to have spiked.

The CNBC survey identified apparel and sneakers as the top items being frontloaded, followed by housewares, appliances, and middle-priced goods. Additionally, tequila, wine, furniture, and manufacturing and auto parts were also identified.

"The CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, Stephen Lamar, stated that tariffs are a major concern for the industry. Many companies have implemented accelerated deliveries or sourcing diversification strategies to reduce the risk of tariffs. However, no amount of planning can eliminate the fact that tariffs are taxes that contribute to inflationary pressures. The uncertainty generated by multiple and conflicting tariff threats also introduces unwarranted supply chain costs."

ITS distribution facilities contain components for future infrastructure projects and solar panels, as stated by Brashier.

"According to Brashier, construction companies were quoted and allocated budgets years ago when bidding on projects. However, orders for these items were made in the spring for fall delivery, which means they started receiving them in early November. These companies cannot afford tariff increases because they cannot go back to the municipality and request more money."

To avoid any possible supply congestion that could delay construction, some critical infrastructure was pulled forward early, as Brashier stated.

Respondents to the survey reported that shippers were reducing the impact of tariffs by sourcing from non-Chinese suppliers and establishing manufacturing operations in countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Malaysia, Kenya, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Taiwan, and Turkey.

In 2025, shippers using Mexico or China in their supply chain are closely examining changes in their sourcing and logistics strategy due to potential changes in tariffs on Mexico exports, which is affecting clothing, textiles, and fabrics.

Jon Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy for the National Retail Federation, stated that retailers are preparing for the unknowns within the supply chain at the beginning of the new year. While strategic tariffs are a useful trade tool, the possibility of broad-based tariffs on everyday consumer goods remains a concern. Retailers will continue to plan for mitigation and supply chain diversity to ensure resiliency and readiness for any new challenges that may arise.

As the possibility of a confrontational approach to trade policy in a second Trump term increases, it is also the season for frontloading due to major holidays in Asia. Over 60% of respondents indicated that Lunar New Year freight, which includes spring and summer products, was also frontloaded to prevent any supply chain disruptions.

C.H. Robinson's North America customs and compliance director, Ben Bidwell, advises clients to coordinate with their finance department and pull forward inventory to potentially avoid an increase in tariffs.

"To prepare for potential changes in timing under the new administration, Bidwell advised shippers to assess the impact of different rates and identify opportunities for increased agility and diversification in their supply chain."

Consumer demand remains strong

Consumer demand is expected to remain strong, as indicated by the volume of freight imports, with 43% of respondents reporting a 5% increase in orders. The other half of respondents experienced a similar level of orders or a slight increase of 3%.

Recent national data on retail sales also indicates a healthy holiday spending season.

During the Lunar New Year freight order period, 83% of items imported were classified as "mid-price point," while 17% were "lower-price point." According to survey respondents, no freight orders were placed in the "higher-end price point" category.

The data on products being moved out of warehouses and into stores for holiday replenishment showed that consumers who continue to spend but are being more careful are focusing on higher-ticket discretionary items. Specifically, the replenishment of higher-end price point products was at half the level of middle-point price products, and far below the replenishment of home goods, apparel, and sneakers.

Despite facing a deep freight recession in recent years, the trucking industry is gradually stabilizing, according to a survey. Over half (57%) of respondents expect trucking freight rates to rise in the first quarter, while another 30% said pricing should remain the same. However, the exact timing of any rebound remains uncertain, as trucking bellwether reported mixed results on Thursday, with higher volumes but persistent pricing pressure that hurt earnings and weighed on shares.

The survey findings align with the long-term trucking rates in Southern California, which have been influenced by the tariffs strategy and the movement of containers to the West Coast due to the strike threat.

The average per mile rate out of Los Angeles in December increased by 5% from November to $2.77, which is a 26-month high, as per data from Journal of Commerce, Cargo Chief, DAT, and Loadsmart. Meanwhile, average long-haul rates from the East Coast have remained unchanged.