The NFL's next major media rights deal is not imminent and is subject to changes in the industry.

• The ongoing shake-up across media companies is making it difficult to determine how valuations for most major sports media rights deals will be affected in the immediate future.
• The NFL has the option to terminate its current media rights deal, worth $111 billion over 11 years, with all of its partners except Disney following the 2028-2029 season.
• The NFL may delay making a decision about its current deal until the media industry undergoes changes, such as consolidation and the decline of pay TV bundles, and their impact on company finances becomes clear.

In 2021, the National Football League and the National Basketball Association both signed 11-year media rights deals worth $111 billion and $77 billion, respectively.

What's next? Well, not much all that soon.

Major college and professional sports have recently signed long-term media rights deals with U.S. TV networks and streamers, while Ultimate Fighting Championship and Formula 1 have deals expiring in 2025.

The sports media rights market is currently experiencing a lull. However, this may be just before a period of intense activity.

The NFL has the option to terminate its current media partnership agreements, except for one with a unique structure, after the 2028-29 season. By then, the media industry will have undergone significant changes, potentially transforming the revenue streams and payers for leagues.

"Daniel Cohen, executive vice president of global media rights consulting at Octagon, stated that anyone claiming with certainty whether the NFL will opt out or not is insane, as it is impossible to predict the outcome even two years in advance, let alone six."

The NFL's opt-out decision, which is still years away, could potentially shift the balance of power in media. The NFL may choose to end its long-standing deals with Sunday afternoon media providers such as CBS and NBC in favor of streaming services like Amazon Prime Video, Hulu, YouTube, and even Disney+.

CNBC will unveil its Official 2024 NFL Team Valuations list on Thursday, which will rank all 32 professional franchises.

Media's transformation

With the NFL's agreement to merge with Skydance Media by mid-2025, its active search for partners to build scale and share content costs, and its acquisition of Christmas Day NFL games, the potential bidders for games in four to five years could be significantly different from today. This will determine the amount of increase the NFL may receive on its next rights deal.

"According to former CBS Sports President Neal Pilson, who founded sports media consulting firm Pilson Communications, there will likely be new competitive bidders in the future formed through mergers of companies that currently do not exist. While other deals, such as the NBA, can serve as a data point, the NFL is unique in that its programming is the driving force behind its popularity."

The future escalation of sports media rights deals will be determined by the decline in pay TV bundles, with 4 million pay TV customer losses in just six months, as reported by MoffettNathanson.

The majority of viewership for live sports still comes from traditional TV rather than streaming.

For decades, content providers like Disney and NBCUniversal have profited from the economics of bundling, while streaming companies have yet to turn a profit.

The NFL values Fox, Disney, NBCUniversal, and CBS, all of which own broadcast networks, due to the limited reach of broadcast networks, particularly in rural areas without consistent high-speed internet.

NBCUniversal has replaced the NBA's partnership with a broadcast network that does not own one.

In four years, the shift to streaming and Big Tech's increased financial resources may lead the NFL to view broadcasting as outdated rather than crucial.

If sports are solely distributed by streamers, they will have complete market power, which could negatively impact valuations.

If streaming parties become the dominant media platform and legacy media can no longer afford to pay for media rights, then streamers will have significant market power, according to Shirin Malkani, co-chair of the sports industry group at Perkins Coie.

Rights locked up

Bank of America has released a chart detailing the estimated values of recent media rights deals, which may differ slightly from previously reported figures.

The NHL's media partnership agreement extends until the 2027-28 season.

The expiration of the players' collective bargaining agreement in 2026 will likely have a greater impact on Major League Baseball's deal, which is set to expire in 2028. However, the rapidly evolving regional sports business and the traditional TV landscape could still make MLB a benchmark for the rights deals that come after it.

The PGA Tour's media deal runs until 2030, while NBCUniversal owns the Winter Olympics until 2030 and the Summer Olympics until 2032. NASCAR signed a contract with media carriers until 2031, and ESPN locked up the College Football Playoffs until 2031. Apple inked a deal for Major League Soccer until 2032.

The stability of these long-term deals provides certainty to the media ecosystem, benefiting leagues, media companies, and pay TV providers by ensuring a consistent flow of cash.

"Cohen, who represents several professional sports leagues in their media deals, advised clients to hold onto a good deal rather than searching for something great if it feels fair or is analytically fair to good. He stated that things will continue to evolve over the next six years."

Disclosure: Comcast's NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC.

The Official 2024 NFL Team Valuations will be unveiled on CNBC on Thursday, Sept. 5, both on TV and online.