The importance of premium screens is highlighted in the Thanksgiving box office showdown.

• Theaters' biggest screens will feature a competition between Universal's "Wicked," Paramount's "Gladiator II," and Disney's "Moana 2" during the Thanksgiving box office.
• The number of PLF screens in North America has increased by 33.7% in the past five years, with over 950 theaters now featuring these screens.
• In 2024, approximately $600 million of the domestic box office can be attributed to these screens, which account for 9.1%.

In November, three major Hollywood films will compete for viewers, box office revenue, and screen time on theaters' largest displays.

"Wicked," "Gladiator II," and "Moana 2" will be released in cinemas within five days of each other, coinciding with the Thanksgiving holiday. All three films are predicted to perform well at the box office, both during their opening weeks and throughout the rest of the year.

As moviegoers become more selective about their spending and which films they choose to leave their homes for, box office analysts ponder which blockbuster will profit the most from premium ticket sales.

Going premium

PLFs, also known as premium large format screens, are enhanced viewing experiences that offer features such as Screen X and 4DX, and come with a higher ticket price. These screens are typically larger than traditional movie screens and may include auditoriums with improved sound systems or seating options.

"According to Shawn Robbins, director of analytics for Fandango's movie division and founder and owner of Box Office Theory, audiences are increasingly drawn to the largest, most impressive, and immersive auditoriums. These auditoriums are the first to sell out for high-demand movies, and opening day sales often slow down or continue into future days as those screens and their best seats fill up rather than carry over into non-premium, traditional auditoriums, which are less appealing to modern moviegoers."

The number of PLF screens in North America has increased by 33.7% in the past five years, from five to over 950 theaters, accounting for 9.1% of the domestic box office, which is approximately $600 million in 2024.

"The growth of PLFs as a percentage of the annual box office has been crucial in recent years, according to Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. Notably, moviegoers have been drawn to these higher-cost movie theater options since the pandemic."

The average price of premium tickets is currently $16.71, an 8% increase from 2021, while standard tickets cost around $11.82, a 7.4% increase from the same year, according to Steve Buck of EntTelligence.

Buck stated that premium format is a major attraction for moviegoers seeking the most immersive experience possible, typically accounting for more than one-third of the foot traffic on a tentpole's opening weekend.

In September, the National Association of Theatre Owners announced that the eight largest theater chains in North America would invest over $2.2 billion to modernize and upgrade their cinema locations. This investment will include updates to laser projectors, immersive sound systems, and seating, as well as enhancing concession offerings and adding family entertainment options like bowling and arcades.

Despite the fact that PLF receipts account for only a small portion of the overall box office, the growth of the PLF box office by 33% in just five years is a significant achievement.

Blockbusters on the biggest screen

Hollywood's biggest blockbusters have been the films that benefit the most from PLF ticket sales.

The desire for thrilling action films and stunning visual effects in cutting-edge settings is driving the popularity of movies like Universal's "Oppenheimer," Disney's "Avatar: The Way of Water," and Warner Bros.' "Dune" and "Dune: Part Two."

The films were filmed with special cameras for large format screens, and fans waited for days or weeks to watch them in sold-out IMAX theaters.

Franchise films are gaining popularity among audiences, as seen in the success of "Deadpool & Wolverine," "Inside Out 2," "Despicable Me 4," "Dune: Part Two," "Twisters," and "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" in 2024.

Between 50% and 70% of the movies from the six major studios next year will be based on existing intellectual property.

The upcoming Thanksgiving holiday could be challenging due to the simultaneous release of "Wicked" and "Gladiator II" on November 22, which may split the available PLF locations equally. Both films decided not to participate in the Thanksgiving holiday after "Moana 2" set its release date for November 27.

The release of "Moana 2" may alter the premium screen divisions. When films are launched, studios and movie theater operators negotiate deals on how many theaters a movie will be shown in, how frequently, and on what types of screens. As new movies debut, these arrangements change. It is uncertain how the PLF screens will be divided once all three movies are in theaters simultaneously.

"During certain periods on the calendar, a release slate is slower, allowing one or two films to dominate premium screen ownership. However, successful or potentially successful movies can be cannibalized at the box office during times of heavy competition for those top-tier screens. This occurred last year during the 'Barbenheimer' craze when Oppenheimer controlled IMAX screens for a contracted time frame before Barbie was eventually able to expand into that format weeks after its release."

Could "Wicked" and "Gladiator II" achieve the same box office success as "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" in 2023?

Currently, there are varying predictions among box office analysts about the potential earnings of "Wicked" during its domestic opening weekend. While some predict a conservative $85 million, others speculate that the first film in a planned duology could generate as much as $150 million in its first three days in theaters.

Despite Hollywood's difficulties in marketing and profiting from movie musicals, recent successes with IP-driven titles have raised expectations. However, predicting the box office performance of "Wicked," which is based on a popular Broadway musical, is proving challenging for analysts.

"Gladiator II" is predicted to earn between $60 million and $80 million during its weekend release, while "Moana 2" is expected to make more than $100 million during its five-day domestic debut, with record-breaking pre-sales for an animated feature in 2024.

"Despite the rise of digital media, word-of-mouth recommendations on movies can still influence consumer decisions to purchase tickets and snacks, according to Robbins. After an initial surge of positive reviews and a large number of theaters, some movies become so popular that they convince casual viewers to buy a ticket, regardless of the format."

NBCUniversal, a subsidiary of Comcast, is the distributor of "Wicked," "Oppenheimer," "Despicable Me 4," and "Twisters," and owns Fandango.