The film "Scream" is expected to attract young horror enthusiasts and kick off the 2022 box office.

The film "Scream" is expected to attract young horror enthusiasts and kick off the 2022 box office.
The film "Scream" is expected to attract young horror enthusiasts and kick off the 2022 box office.
  • The latest "Scream" movie has a chance to dethrone "Spider-Man: No Way Home" as the top-grossing film at the domestic weekend box office.
  • According to Comscore, the film is projected to generate between $25 million and $30 million in ticket sales during its opening weekend, including the extended holiday weekend.
  • The franchise's last theatrical release was over a decade ago, and Scream now faces challenges such as a potentially smaller moviegoing audience due to the pandemic.
After Hours
Still from "Scream."
Still from “Scream.” (Paramount Pictures)

This weekend, the newest "Scream" movie is being released, coinciding with the movie theater industry facing a growing threat from the coronavirus, fueled by the highly contagious omicron variant.

Despite Covid concerns, "Spider-Man: No Way Home" became the highest grossing movie during the pandemic, surpassing $1 billion. However, "Scream" has the potential to dethrone Spider-Man as the weekend box office champion, as it holds the top spot for four weeks.

The franchise's last theatrical release was over a decade ago, and "Scream" may face a smaller moviegoing audience due to its challenges.

Rich Greenfield, general partner at LightShed Ventures, stated that consumers are becoming more discerning in determining what justifies a theatrical visit.

The fifth installment of the franchise, which opened in theaters 26 years ago, features the return of Neve Campbell, Courtney Cox, and David Arquette, as well as newcomers Melissa Barrera, Jenna Ortega, and Jack Quaid. In an interview on "The Drew Barrymore Show" in May, Cox described the movie as a "brand new launch" of the slasher franchise.

According to Comscore, the film is projected to generate between $25 million and $30 million in ticket sales during its opening weekend, including the holiday on Monday. The film's legacy factor and its appeal to younger audiences, who are more likely to visit movie theaters during the pandemic, give it an advantage.

In the midst of the health crisis, "Candyman," "A Quiet Place: Part II," and "Halloween: Kills" all generated over $20 million in their initial weekends, as per Comscore's data.

During the pandemic, the movie theater was saved by the horror genre, according to Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

During the pandemic, the gap between moviegoers aged 18-29 and other demographics has increased, according to a survey from Gallup.

According to Dergarabedian, there are two distinct groups of moviegoers: older audiences who prefer to stay home and younger viewers who want to go out to theaters. The pandemic has intensified this divide.

During the pandemic, horror movies continue to attract younger audiences, making it a profitable decision for studios to release them in theaters. "Halloween Kills," a sequel to Blumhouse Productions' Halloween revamp, grossed almost $50 million in October 2021. The largest demographic group for the film was 18- to 24-year-olds, accounting for 35% of its audience, according to Comscore/Screen Engine API data.

According to LightShed Ventures’ Greenfield, specific types of movies catering to different age groups and demographics are performing well. For instance, if you're targeting the younger teenager or young adult demographic, like "Spider-Man" or "Scream" did this weekend, you're likely to succeed.

Horror movies with lower budgets can benefit studios as they have smaller price tags and don't need to earn as much to turn a profit at the box office. For instance, "Candyman" had an estimated production budget of $25 million and earned $27 million in sales during its first weekend, while "Scream" had an estimated production budget of $24 million.

According to Dergarabedian, making a convincing and scary horror movie doesn't require a large budget. Instead, it's the accountant's and bean counter's dream.

The release of "Scream" this weekend may be able to overcome audience hesitation from the omicron variant, despite the original Scream feature not having the same built-in audience on its opening weekend.

An Opening Bust

Over two decades, the Scream horror franchise has encompassed five theatrical releases and a television series on MTV.

The "Scream" movie, directed by Wes Craven, was released in 1996 and had a disappointing opening weekend. Despite debuting just before Christmas, it only made about $6 million at the domestic box office. This was not the success studio executives had anticipated, and they almost declared the film a failure.

In an interview with The Ringer last month, Cox stated, "I remember going, 'Oh, that's a bummer, this isn't going to work. It's so good,'"

The film offered a new style of horror, which was discovered by word of mouth among moviegoers. Those who were aware of previous slasher tropes were given a fresh take on the genre.

In the following weeks, "Scream" surpassed $100 million at the domestic box office, achieving 16 times its initial gross and garnering critical acclaim.

According to Dergarabedian, the rarity of seeing a 16 times multiple is a direct reflection of the long-term playability, great buzz, and cultural impact.

The franchise's momentum wouldn't last forever, as a sequel was released less than a year after that moment.

The release of "Scream 4" in April 2011 did not attract as many moviegoers as expected. The film opened at $18.6 million at the domestic box office, which was the franchise's second-lowest opening weekend, following the original's disappointing release. According to Dergarabedian, the film's poor performance can be attributed to the decade that had passed between the third and fourth installment.

"Scream" aims to attract a similar audience as "Halloween," which was released 40 years after its initial success.

Watching a movie like "Scream" in a theater is a thrilling experience for young viewers, allowing them to forget their daily problems and be scared out of their wits alongside others.

–CNBC’s Nate Rattner contributed to this report.

Last year, Disney didn't have the level of content its peers did, and they know it, says Wells Fargo analyst
by Zach Vallese

business-news