In 2025, global trade is predicted to experience another year of disruption, with Maersk anticipating high demand.

• The U.S. consumer's demand continues to drive the strength of the North American market, as reported by Maersk.
• Several threats are present in the supply chain, including a potential East Coast ports strike in January, Trump tariffs on China and Mexico during the Lunar New Year period in Asia.
• The global supply chain is facing disruption once again, as North American container pricing experienced the sharpest rise globally in recent months, according to Charles Van der Steene, president for Maersk North America.

According to Maersk, North American import trade demand has been robust in the past year and is expected to remain so for both ocean and air cargo into 2025. However, supply chain disruptions will also persist.

According to Charles van der Steene, president for Maersk North America, the company anticipates that the Q4 numbers for North American market imports will also be in double-digit territory, following year-on-year growth of roughly 20%-24% across the first three quarters of 2024. He described the full year 2024 as "very strong with resilient demand."

The e-commerce market has been surprisingly robust, which has driven up air freight prices due to the surge of shipments from Chinese online sellers. Maersk is returning its China air cargo service to its South Carolina hub at the start of 2025.

According to Van der Steene, shipping companies anticipate the volatility that has affected global trade since Covid to return in 2025. He stated, "Disruption will persist, and the topic of supply chain resilience should remain a priority for all."

Another potential International Longshoremen's Association strike at East Coast and Gulf ports across the U.S., as well as tariff threats made by President-elect Trump ahead of an early Lunar New Year in Asia, when many manufacturing plants in China are idled for a month, are among the disruptions that could impact global trade.

Ocean carriers released their rates for the Dec. 15- Dec. 31 bookings, and logistics managers told CNBC that they jumped, indicating a bullish demand for cargo containers.

Over the past 90 days, North America has experienced the most significant increase in average container prices globally, with a 20% rise.

Container import records will be set in November and December due to the National Retail Federation's prediction of increased inbound cargo traffic resulting from strike and tariff threats.

Van der Steene stated that Maersk has observed an increase in trade shifting to the West Coast, with strong volumes remaining. He added, "We can conclude that volumes are being pulled forward or are significantly stronger due to anticipation of a potential disruption."

Trump takes sides in port strike

The use of automation is a significant issue in negotiations between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, which represents port owners on the East and Gulf Coasts. The breakdown in talks over the summer was caused by Maersk's auto gate system in Mobile, Alabama, which the union claimed violated contract terms.

The ILA strike on October 1-October 3, which shut down 36 ports on the East and Gulf Coasts, was primarily driven by concerns over automation. Although wage issues were resolved with substantial increases for dock workers in October, the matter of automation was deferred until a January 15 deadline for a comprehensive agreement.

On Thursday, President-elect Trump met with ILA president Harold Daggett and his son, Dennis Daggett, who is executive vice president of the ILA, and expressed support for the union's stance after the meeting. In a Truth Social post, Trump stated that the savings companies achieve through automation are not enough to offset the negative impact it has on American workers.

By granting access to our markets, foreign companies have made a fortune in the U.S.

The Trump-Daggett meeting took place at a crucial juncture following another impasse in discussions between the union and ports. The ILA, representing North America's largest longshoremen's union, and the USMX met on November 11 to discuss automation, healthcare benefits, work jurisdiction, and container royalties. However, negotiations fell apart on November 13 due to disagreements over automation.

Harold Daggett has vowed no use of automation as a firm union position.

On Thursday, USMX issued a statement to the press expressing gratitude for President-elect Trump's recognition of the significance of American ports, while emphasizing that the union contract prioritizes supporting American consumers and businesses through advancements in technology and innovation.

"In order to enhance worker safety, boost port efficiency, increase port capacity, and fortify our supply chains, we require cutting-edge technology that has been demonstrated to be effective. The compensation of ILA members is directly proportional to the quantity of goods they transport, which in turn increases the capacity of our ports and results in more money in their pockets."

According to EY, a strike lasting more than a few days would result in a weekly loss of $5-$7 billion to the U.S. economy.

In a CNBC interview before Trump's post, Van der Steene stated that Maersk remains "hopeful and mildly positive" that an agreement between the ILA and the USMX will be reached before the January 15 deadline, preventing another strike from occurring.

The ILA has warned that if President Biden invoked the Taft-Hartley Act to force the striking workers back on the job, there would be an intentional slowdown. However, President Biden stuck to his position of not invoking the act when the ILA went on strike in October. Trump's latest comments suggest he would not invoke Taft-Hartley either. Senior Biden administration officials have told CNBC they are urging both sides to get back to the negotiation table.

Global supply chain outlook for 2025

In February, Maersk will establish a new ocean alliance with Hapag-Lloyd, despite the cancellation of Hapag's China to Germany service raising concerns in the logistics industry. Van der Steene, CEO of Maersk, assured CNBC that the Gemini Alliance has enough vessels to meet demand.

This week, bookings for the new alliance commenced, and van der Steen stated that the alliance is thrilled about orders and has set a challenging objective of achieving 90% vessel reliability by 2025. Red Sea diversions and ILA strike delays have caused delays in 2024, contributing to the current ocean carrier reliability, which, according to Sea-Intelligence, is 50-55%. Maersk is the most reliable ocean carrier, with a reliability rating of 58%.

""We will significantly increase our driving from 58% to 90% by 2025, which we believe is the only way to reduce inventory, de-risk supply chains, and minimize costs and carbon footprint," he stated."

In 2025, Maersk anticipates a strong market, with the U.S. GDP projected to grow slightly above 2%, driving demand for supply chain services, including imports from Asia and trade flows between Mexico and the U.S., according to Van Der Steene.

While it is challenging to predict the exact level of demand, the market is expected to remain strong in the first half of 2025. Van der Steen stated, "We should all be prepared for a continued strong market." However, he also emphasized the importance of being ready for another year of disruption and the need for supply chain resilience.