Fauci hopes the world will remember lessons from the 'catastrophic experience' two years into the coronavirus pandemic.
- Experts advised against complacency in preparing for the next phase of the Covid-19 crisis, even as much of the U.S. and the world have moved past it.
- Over 1,200 Americans continue to die daily from Covid two years after the WHO declared the coronavirus a pandemic.
- Despite stalled funding in Congress, efforts on treatments, vaccines, and surveillance against the virus continue.
Last week, as the two-year anniversary of the coronavirus pandemic declaration approached, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House chief medical advisor, was not in a predictive mood.
Fauci stated on CNBC that the answer is "We don't know" when asked about the future of Covid-19 vaccinations. He added that the durability of protection from the shots suggests that "it is likely that we're not done with this when it comes to vaccines."
With over 6 million deaths worldwide and 1 million in the U.S. from a two-year pandemic, public health leaders, academics, and industry expressed ambivalence, while the rest of the world, particularly the U.S., seems to be moving on. Although progress has been made in controlling the highly contagious omicron variant, leaders emphasized that global leaders must remain vigilant.
Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, stated that everyone desires to return to normalcy and leave the virus in the past, which is what we should strive for.
He acknowledged that cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have declined after the omicron surge, but he also pointed out that the same progress had been made in four other variants before the pandemic took a devastating turn.
Despite the lifting of restrictions in many states and cities, the U.S. continues to record over 1,200 deaths daily from COVID-19, and hospitalizations have recently increased in the UK, which has historically been a predictor of future outbreaks in the U.S.
The WHO marked two years since the coronavirus was declared a pandemic on Friday, but its scientists argued that the more significant anniversary was more than a month earlier, in January 2020, when the disease was classified as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
"Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO's health emergencies program, stated in a briefing on Thursday that the lack of response and urgency in relation to WHO's highest level of alert was what most shocked him when reflecting on what was said in January about the impending pandemic."
Despite White House press secretary Jen Psaki's warning that the U.S. needs funds to secure critical supplies, Congress last week sidelined new funding for the Covid response.
If the U.S. does not receive more aid, it will lose its testing capacity within weeks, run out of monoclonal antibody drugs by May, and deplete its only preventive medicine for immunocompromised individuals by July, leaving antiviral pills as the only option by September.
On CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday morning, Chief Executive Albert Bourla expressed his concern about the lack of new federal funding. He pointed out that since vaccine boosters and antiviral pills are only approved through Emergency Use Authorization, the government is the only authorized buyer.
If the government lacks funds, no one can obtain the vaccine, according to Bourla.
Despite the lingering worries about pandemic readiness, efforts towards vaccine development, new treatments, and Covid monitoring continue.
Last week, it was announced that a trial of a vaccine against both omicron and the original strain of the virus had begun to aid public health authorities in determining booster decisions for the fall.
Bourla stated on Friday that Pfizer anticipates submitting data to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a fourth dose or a second booster of its vaccine soon. He explained that while the vaccine provides high protection against hospitalization and death from the omicron variant after three doses, this protection decreases after three or four months.
The chancellor and executive dean for health sciences at West Virginia University, Dr. Clay Marsh, who is also the state's Covid czar, agreed that the emerging information from Israel and the UK, both of which are administering additional doses to the elderly, supports the consideration of additional boosters in the U.S.
"Marsh stated that in his opinion, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the FDA should be taking the lead on something, but he doesn't see it happening."
If authorized, the state has enough vaccine supply to administer additional boosters, but antiviral pills, particularly Pfizer's Paxlovid, are still not readily available.
Since its launch in December, over 689,000 courses of Paxlovid have been distributed, according to federal data, compared to more than 2 million courses of Merck's antiviral pill, molnupiravir. However, Merck's drug is often considered a last resort for prescribers due to concerns about its lower effectiveness and safety for certain groups, as stated by Marsh.
Paxlovid can be challenging to prescribe due to its interactions with commonly used medications, such as statins.
After Paxlovid, monoclonal antibody drugs are usually the next option, with two available: sotrovimab from Roche and bebtelovimab from Eli Lilly, which were authorized after omicron made earlier antibody drugs ineffective, such as a cocktail.
Last week, Regeneron's chief scientist stated that the company is evaluating different variants to determine the most effective combination of antibodies for clinical testing and FDA authorization.
"According to Dr. George Yancopoulos of Regeneron, no single antibody or even a combination of antibodies can effectively combat all the variants. Therefore, the solution is to have a vast collection of different antibodies, which Regeneron has been accumulating over time."
Regeneron is able to quickly select the appropriate antibodies for a new drug in the event of a surge, as the company is currently discussing a strategy with the FDA to test a series of antibody drugs in humans for safety and initial data.
The availability of a new drug during a surge could be significantly impacted by the regulatory agency's decision to adopt a more flexible pathway, similar to what was done for Covid vaccines, according to the expert.
The possibility of another surge in Covid-19 cases is uncertain, according to Evercore ISI's Michael Newshel. In his research note on Covid surveillance, he pointed out that cases have climbed slightly in Europe. Additionally, the U.K.'s rise in hospitalizations has puzzled experts there.
Dr. Bob Wachter of the University of California San Francisco advised that the U.K. data suggests a need to exercise more caution in the coming month or two.
If a new surge of the coronavirus occurs, the initial indications may originate from wastewater, according to Dr. Mariana Matus, CEO and co-founder of Biobot Analytics. Although the U.S. system for tracking sewage for increases in the virus is still fragmented, in cities where it is implemented, it can offer a lead time of several weeks before cases begin to rise.
The company analyzes wastewater samples from a network of treatment plants in 37 states, serving approximately 20 million people. Each week, they test for the concentration of the coronavirus in samples that contain less than a cup of wastewater. One $350 test can represent between 10,000 and 2 million people, according to Matus in an interview.
""The disease causes people to start shedding early and producing a signal in wastewater before symptoms appear, making it highly detectable," she stated."
The decline in testing volumes during the omicron health crisis in the U.S. has made passive surveillance more helpful, particularly in large population centers like New York City and Los Angeles, according to Marsh.
Despite a decrease in cases, experts warned against becoming complacent about Covid.
"Fauci warned that the memory of the pandemic fades quickly, and we must not forget the catastrophic experience to prevent future pandemics."
— CNBC's Nick Wells and Leanne Miller contributed to this report
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