California-led EV mandates are 'unattainable' as states fail to meet target.

• Toyota Motor stated on Friday that the electric vehicle mandates set to begin in California next year are "unattainable."
• Zero-emission vehicles will make up 35% of 2026 model-year vehicles, starting next year, as per regulations.
• According to J.D. Power, no states have complied with the EV mandate this year.
• This year, at least 20% of retail sales in California, Colorado, and Washington have been EV or PHEVs.

California-led electric vehicle mandates that are set to start next year are "impossible" to meet and, if they're not changed, will lead to less customer choice in several states.

Under the "Advanced Clean Cars II" regulations by the California Air Resources Board, 35% of 2026 model-year vehicles must be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), which will start being introduced next year. Battery-electric, fuel cell, and to some extent, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are considered ZEVs under the regulations.

"According to Jack Hollis, chief operating officer of Toyota Motor North America, no forecast by any government or private entity has been seen that suggests the number is achievable. Currently, it seems impossible due to the lack of demand, which will limit customers' vehicle choices."

The California Air Resources Board reports that 12 states, including Washington, D.C., have adopted the rules for electric vehicles (EVs). Approximately half of them implemented the rules starting with the 2027 model year. The EV mandates are part of CARB's Advanced Clean Cars regulations, which require 100% of new vehicle sales in California to be zero-emission models by 2035.

According to J.D. Power, no states have fully complied with the EV mandate this year. Only California, Colorado, and Washington have seen at least 20% of retail sales being EVs or PHEVs. Other states, including New York, New Mexico, and Rhode Island, are significantly behind.

According to J.D. Power, the national average of EV/PHEV adoption for retail sales is just 9% as of October.

If the mandates remain unchanged, the automotive industry will continue to engage in "unnatural acts" as some companies are already doing, by providing states that have agreed to the rules with an excessive amount of electrified models.

According to Hollis, a longtime automotive executive, the industry and business will be distorted because the current demand in the marketplace is unnatural.

According to several automotive insiders, the EV mandate issue must be resolved regardless of the election outcome this year.

The CARB did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

During President-elect Donald Trump's first term, a legal fight arose to rescind states' authority to establish their own emissions standards. Several officials anticipate Trump will renew this effort upon his return to the White House.

Hollis expressed hope that a resolution can be reached this time around, with the states, federal government, and auto industry working together. He added that Toyota, like many other automakers, prefers a single national standard.

"Hollis stated that they would always prefer a 50-state rule to treat all customers and dealers equally and fairly. Their hope is that California and the Environmental Protection Agency will align, reducing it to an achievable level, even if it requires a push or reach. However, at this stage, it seems impossible."