Analysts believe that no alternative supplies can completely substitute Russian oil.
- If the U.S. and its allies were to ban Russian energy imports, analysts said Tuesday, alternatives to Russian oil would be insufficient or difficult logistically.
- Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, stated that while some Russian supplies could be exchanged with those of OPEC members, they would have to "stretch themselves to their utmost capacity" simultaneously.
- Regina Mayor of KPMG stated, "While there are alternative sources of oil supply, the question lies in how quickly they can be brought online and the logistics of delivering them to the required locations."
If the U.S. and its allies were to ban Russian energy imports, analysts said Tuesday, alternatives to Russian oil would be insufficient or difficult logistically.
According to Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, even the combined efforts of OPEC+ and Iran and Venezuela would not be enough to offset the oil production cuts.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, prompting the U.S. and its allies to consider imposing a ban on Russian oil and natural gas imports. As a result, oil prices surged to their highest levels since 2008, although they later moderated. Additionally, there were fears that Russia might retaliate by cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe.
To be sure, some Russian capacity could be replaced, Hari said.
The International Energy Agency reports that Russia exports approximately 5 million barrels of crude oil daily. Hari estimates that 2 million of these barrels could be replaced if Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates all simultaneously reached their maximum production capacity.
Nevertheless, much of the excess capacity within OPEC and its allies, commonly referred to as OPEC+, originates from Russia.
OPEC+'s production quota system would need to be "reopened" in order to make any cuts or increases to their oil output, but it seems unlikely that they will do so at this time, according to the speaker. The amount of oil a country is allowed to pump is determined by a baseline, with higher numbers allowing for more output.
KPMG's U.S. national sector leader of energy and natural resources, Regina Mayor, stated that OPEC+ has been "remarkably disciplined" in managing the return of crude to the market.
"Other sources of oil supply exist, but it's uncertain how quickly they can be brought online and the challenges of transporting them to their desired location," she said on CNBC on Tuesday.
The U.S. was reportedly also considering lifting sanctions on Venezuela's oil as it seeks alternatives to Russia.
Even if the sanctions on Venezuela were lifted, Hari stated that it would only release 100,000 barrels per day, which would not be enough to compensate for the disruption in Russian supplies.
Russia ranks third globally in oil production, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. It is also the largest exporter of crude oil to international markets and the leading supplier of natural gas to the European Union, accounting for approximately 43% of its needs.
The European Commission has announced its intention to end the EU's dependency on Russia for gas supplies, following the conflict in Ukraine. Despite previous calls to diversify suppliers, the EU has not seen significant progress in this area. Last week, Europe's energy chief revealed that the EU has a contingency plan in place in case Russia cuts off gas supplies to the bloc.
— CNBC’s Silvia Amaro contributed to this report.
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