America's small businesses are facing a crucial decision, similar to the rest of the nation.
- The latest quarterly poll by CNBC and SurveyMonkey reveals a mixed economic outlook among small business owners, with optimism driven by interest rate cuts to encourage more spending, but worries about inflation and expenses remaining.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years, which may positively affect stocks and Wall Street. However, what impact will this have on the foundation of our economy, the small businesses?
A CNBC|SurveyMonkey study conducted before the Fed's first rate cut, which was expected though the exact size was unknown, provides insight into the thoughts of entrepreneurs. The quarterly survey of small businesses shows a mix of optimism and concerns about inflation and expenses. With a contentious presidential election approaching, uncertainty is evident.
Nearly three times as many (38%) of the respondents considered inflation to be the greatest threat to their business compared to the next two highest risks, consumer demand (13%) and interest rates (10%).
The anticipated interest rate cuts also led to an increase in confidence among respondents. Specifically, 33% of respondents believed that inflation had reached its peak, and overall optimism for inflation relief is currently at its highest level since the first quarter of this year.
Small business owners are taking action in response to the recent interest rate cuts. Out of the three in five (62%) who expected some impact on their business, 22% expected a major impact and 41% a minor impact. Among these owners, 40% planned to increase investments, 37% intended to expand their business, and 26% said they would stock up on inventory. On the other hand, only one in five (20%) planned on increasing employee wages or benefits, or hiring more employees (17%).
The Fed's recent decision has sparked optimism for stability in the economy, as it appears set to make a significant positive stride. This could be a much-needed boost for borrowers looking to take advantage of lower borrowing costs.
In the months leading up to November, political leaders from both sides of the spectrum are mostly voting according to their party affiliations, with Democrats and Republicans remaining loyal to their respective choices.
A divide emerged in the survey among Republican small business owners, with 53% preferring Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. This could indicate a difference in how the two candidates' economic policies are perceived by Main Street or an expectation that Biden would be easier for Trump to defeat in the election.
In this community, 90% of Democratic business owners back Harris as the Democrat candidate, indicating the significant political division that exists.
On both sides of the political aisle, there was a significant lack of enthusiasm for vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance, according to our research.
Small business owners were more likely to support Donald Trump (50%) than Vance (37%) by 13 points, but still preferred Walz (29%) over Vance. Both candidates received majority support from their respective parties, with 68% of Republican small business owners supporting Vance and 67% of Democrat small business owners supporting Walz. However, presidential candidates generated stronger support within their respective parties, with 89% of Trump supporters and 79% of Harris supporters.
The CNBC|SurveyMonkey study shows that businesses are cautiously optimistic despite the uncertain landscape. Although interest rate cuts are boosting optimism and owners plan to reinvest in their businesses, it is crucial to closely monitor and analyze this group as election season intensifies.
— By Eric Johnson, CEO, SurveyMonkey
Business News
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