After Trump's election win and new trade war vow, manufacturers and retailers are rushing to bring imports into the U.S.

• Retail and manufacturing clients are expediting the import process into the U.S., according to logistics companies.
• Trump has pledged to implement swift action on import tariffs and stated in his early morning speech, "fulfilled promises."
• On Wednesday, freight rates rose as shipping anxiety intensified, while trucking and railroad stocks surged, but international ocean carriers, particularly Maersk, fell on concerns about reduced global trade volumes due to a new trade war.

In the days leading up to the presidential election and on Election Night, retailers and manufacturing companies have been contacting logistics partners about "front loading" shipments in anticipation of any changes in tariff policy that President-elect Donald Trump may pursue, as he campaigned on expanding existing U.S. tariffs on cross-border trade.

Trump has pledged to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports entering the United States and a tariff of 60% to 100% on Chinese imports.

"This is 2018 all over again," said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, as he referred to the year when Trump first imposed sweeping tariffs in his first term. "The calls for frontloading are not limited to shippers with Chinese imports. The global tariff threat is driving calls for frontloading from all around the world," he added.

Expecting an increase in container demand and vessel bookings following Trump's election, Brashier anticipates that this will lead to higher freight rates, trucking, and warehouse rates. On Wednesday, trucking stocks such as and were in an upward trend, as were freight rails including and.

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar strengthened against several international currencies linked to trade, including the euro and yen, as traders and investors processed the Republican election results.

Ocean shipping stocks hit on market fears of trade decline

Despite strong consumer demand in the U.S. and the potential for frontloading of imports to raise ocean rates, shares of ocean carriers experienced a negative knee-jerk reaction, with a significant slump led by Maersk. However, shipping analysts believe this reaction is excessive and based on the assumption that tariffs will increase the costs of trade, lowering demand and volumes. They noted that this did not occur in 2018 and 2019, with volumes growing an average of 12% during those two years. Analyst Ben Slupecki of Morningstar wrote in an email that this uncertainty speaks to the imminent doom rather than the actual situation.

Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, stated that in the near future, there will be an increase in demand for containerized goods from U.S. companies as they prepare for any new tariffs. He added that this surge will particularly affect goods that are not time-sensitive, resulting in an increase in freight rates in the upcoming months.

The Trump trade war on Chinese imports in 2018 led to a more than 70% increase in ocean container shipping freight rates, as tracked by ocean and air freight intelligence platform Xeneta.

Xeneta's chief shipping analyst, Peter Sand, warns CNBC that shippers will be anxious about the future with the latest tariff threat. "The global shipping industry relies on international trade, so another Trump presidency is a step in the wrong direction," Sand said. "U.S. shippers will likely rush to import goods before Trump can impose his new tariffs."

The incentive to frontload would be even greater if fears of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, compared to 25% in 2018, become a reality.

Slupecki stated in an email that the decline in ocean carriers could present a buying opportunity, but he was hesitant to say that Maersk would benefit from front-loading the election, as there are many other factors to consider in global trade. He maintains a fair value weighting on Maersk and believes the drop is an overreaction. "Potential tariffs cause uncertainty but not necessarily poor performance, as demonstrated by the performance of these names during the prior tariffs of 2018."

According to Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta, a wave of pre-ordering by retailers ahead of new tariffs could positively impact ocean carrier earnings power. However, he noted that overall volume gains are uncertain and the long-term issue is the potential significant slowdown in trade volumes in the coming years. Nokta wrote that global trade volumes have risen by 2x the rate of GDP growth this year, but could fall below that should tariffs impact trade patterns, which would be negative for ocean carrier earnings.

Republican tariff policy remains difficult to predict

If Trump is reelected, he plans to swiftly implement his extensive tariff proposals, as stated by Robert Lighthizer, former U.S. Trade Representative during the first Trump term, to Wall Street money managers in recent weeks, according to policy analysts at Piper Sandler.

Caution should be exercised when interpreting Trump's tariff threats, as trade experts advise against making assumptions about the final policy outcome. According to Matthew Rubel, who served on the Advisory Committee for Trade Policy Negotiation for both Presidents Obama and Trump, a global tariff is not a likely outcome in negotiations. Instead, everything will be discussed and considered.

Rubel stated that tariffs are a means to protect domestic industries and promote economic growth. He emphasized that the Trump administration's trade policy, led by Lighthizer, is focused on negotiating from a position of strength and achieving bilateral agreements that benefit the US economically. Rubel acknowledged that the policy is complex and not a one-size-fits-all solution, but he assured that the administration will be transparent about its business case.

The effect of tariffs will depend on how they are implemented, according to Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group.

"Boockvar stated that the market can tolerate selective tariffs on specific products/industries, but a scattershot approach that applies to all imports will not be accepted."

"The level of tariffs to be imposed is uncertain, as Trump has mentioned a range of 100-500%, leaving it unclear what will actually happen. This uncertainty is significant for U.S. importers, and the only way to reduce it is to import goods earlier."

Steven Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, stated that he anticipates Trump will declare new tariffs in the initial days of his presidency.

Lamar stated that companies are employing various tactics to lessen the inflationary consequences of upcoming import taxes. However, he lamented that there are no effective tariff reduction strategies; the challenge lies in identifying the least detrimental one.

He stated that introducing the product before the inauguration is one possible solution, but it only offers temporary relief. However, this approach will be complicated by the import surge that will arise, which will be further complicated by the threat of another labor strike at East Coast ports and the Lunar New Year, both of which fall in the second half of January.

Lamar stated that the new Administration and Congress will collaborate with us to ensure that any new tariffs do not exacerbate the regressive and misogynistic burden that hard-working Americans already experience due to the existing tariff structure.

Mexico trade boom could be target

The USMCA, which replaced NAFTA, will be renegotiated in 2026, along with the tariffs. President-elect Trump has already expressed his desire to renegotiate the deal he made in 2020. One of the key provisions was a requirement for the countries to review the trade deal after six years, which will begin in July 2026. Chinese manufacturing in Mexico to avoid the Trump/Biden tariffs is likely to be a part of the trade renegotiation.

New Trump tariffs could negatively affect historic cross-border truck trade between Mexico and the U.S., according to logistics companies serving this trade. Through September, year-to-date cross-border trade between these countries increased by approximately 52%, setting a new record.

Redwood Mexico CEO Jordan Dewart stated that his company received numerous customer concerns about the proposed tariff changes that would affect northbound goods in transit to the US, both before and after the election.

"Dewart stated that a change in the flow of goods across the border would have a significant impact on both U.S. and Mexican companies, with over $2 billion crossing daily. Even a short-term change could cause companies to take proactive measures by importing their goods ahead of schedule."

The short-term impact of pulling freight forward will increase freight rates, especially in Mexico, where the driver shortage and fuel prices are already causing upward pressures. However, the devaluation of the Peso by 2.5% overnight will provide some relief as most rates are negotiated in U.S. dollars.

According to Dewart, some companies may delay their investment in Mexico due to proposed tariffs, which could negatively impact the country's booming economy. European and Asian-based companies have been investing heavily in Mexico to strengthen their trade strategies. John Deere and Tesla, both targets of Trump, have recently announced manufacturing plan pullbacks within Mexico.