According to Dan Yergin, weaponizing gas supplies to Europe will have a "deeply damaging" impact on Russia.

• According to Dan Yergin, CNBC, the likelihood of gas supplies being disrupted in Europe is higher due to violence in the region, rather than because of weaponization.
• Europe relies heavily on Russia for its gas needs, with over 30% of its gas supply coming from the country. The gas markets in Europe are interconnected through a network of pipelines, some of which run through Ukraine.
• Yergin stated that some producers may face challenges in returning to their previous levels of production, despite OPEC+'s decision to increase production output to 400,000 barrels per day for March.

Dan Yergin, an energy expert, predicts that Russian President Vladimir Putin will face consequences if he decides to use gas supplies to Europe as a weapon amid rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

The likelihood of gas supplies being disrupted is higher due to violence in the region, rather than because of weaponization, according to the source.

According to Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit, Putin could weaponize the conflict in Ukraine on a broader scale, which would cause Europe to scramble. However, it would be detrimental to Putin's future market for natural gas if he were to do it. Instead, Yergin believes that disruptions in the region due to violence and sanctions are more likely to occur.

Europe relies heavily on Russia for its natural gas needs, with over 30% of Europe's gas supply coming from Russia. This gas is transported to Europe through a network of pipelines, some of which run through Ukraine.

Last month, Yergin cautioned that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is having a lasting impact on the gas market.

The Kremlin has utilized energy as a means to exert political influence, including cutting off Ukraine's gas supply in 2006 and 2014 due to price disputes and annexation of Crimea. In 2009, Russia also cut off gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine.

The number of troops Russia has amassed along its border with Ukraine has increased significantly in recent months, leading to heightened tensions between the two countries.

The possibility of a Russian invasion and the renewal of the Kremlin's illegal annexation and occupation of Crimea in 2014 has caused alarm, but Moscow has consistently refuted these claims.

The potential for instability in the region increases with any confrontation due to Ukraine's location, which separates Russia and the EU.

Discussions have emerged about the possibility of the U.S. imposing sanctions on Russia to prevent the Kremlin from invading Ukraine due to the crisis.

$100 oil

Currently, there is a lot of nervousness in oil markets, according to Yergin. Despite the tight supply, oil prices are also receiving support from the Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Recently, crude oil prices surged above $90 per barrel, resulting in a 20% increase this year and a remarkable 60% increase since the start of 2021.

Some experts predict that oil prices may reach $100 per barrel.

According to Yergin, the current situation could be a repeat of 2011, when oil prices surged to $100 and remained at that level for three years.

He stated that our current market is crisis-prone, he believes.

OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, collectively known as OPEC+, have opted to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in March.

Some producers may face challenges in achieving their previous levels of production, according to Yergin.

Due to underinvestment and lack of maintenance, not all producers can return to their previous production levels, resulting in a decrease in the amount of 400,000 barrels a day being put back into the market.

According to Yergin, only two countries in the world have spare capacity that can be utilized in an emergency, which defines a tight market.