A commodity strategist says that consumers will have to bear the cost of upholding the principle that invasion is unacceptable.
- The imposition of sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine may result in higher prices, and it appears that Middle Eastern countries are not prepared to increase their supply, according to Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets.
- If people consider this a generational security crisis and believe it's important, we must consider the sacrifices people are willing to make to defend these values, she stated.
An energy expert predicts that consumers will face higher prices due to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and ongoing disruptions to the global energy market.
The conflict in Ukraine resulting from Russia's invasion in February has caused chaos in the energy market and increased the cost of wheat. Both Russia and Ukraine are major global wheat exporters.
If people consider this a generational security crisis and believe it's important, we must consider the sacrifices people are willing to make to defend these values, according to Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Sanctions imposed by Washington and its allies on Russia, particularly on energy exports, could result in inflation.
She inquired about the amount Western consumers are willing to pay for the principle that no country can invade a sovereign state and disrupt the European security framework.
She stated on CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Monday that consumers must accept higher prices and have a dialogue with citizens about it.
Middle East support?
The Biden administration is attempting to persuade countries like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, but is encountering opposition.
According to Croft, the message being conveyed is that there are significant security concerns and a partnership with the United States is necessary. Additionally, it is important to know that the U.S. will remain committed to the relationship. However, increasing energy supply to help the U.S. could damage the successful OPEC+ partnership that has been established since 2016.
It's uncertain which side Middle East oil producers are taking, as they have "back channels" they can use to communicate with Russia.
This week, prior to the meeting between OPEC and its allies, Croft expressed concerns about the US's dedication to the region and the limited availability of spare energy due to a decrease in investment in the industry in 2020.
The supply of crude oil may range from 2 million to 2.5 million barrels per day, but beyond that, there is limited spare capacity. Additionally, major gas supplier Qatar's supply is "largely maxed out," according to her.
According to Croft, if you require gas urgently and aim to reduce Europe's reliance on Russian gas, there are limited cargo options available to offer relief immediately.
She explained why the Germans are being inflexible on this issue.
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