2029: The Year That's Causing TV Executives to Panic

• The largest media rights deal in the U.S. is the NFL's 11-year, $111 billion agreement.
• All of Disney's media partners except for those in the 2028-29 season will have an out clause.
• NFL games are already being considered as a potential competition for tech giants by some legacy media executives who are already planning for 2029.

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The NFL's media rights deal, worth $111 billion over 11 years, is the largest in the U.S. However, the deal includes an out clause after the 2028-29 season, except for Disney, which can opt out one year later.

According to sources, the opt-out option also impacts "Sunday Ticket," the NFL's out-of-market package, which was acquired by Alphabet's YouTube for approximately $2 billion. This means that following the 2029 Super Bowl, the NFL has the authority to completely reshape the media landscape if desired.

In the media industry, five years is a significant amount of time due to the fast pace of change. To give a better understanding of this timeframe, consider that five years ago, Disney+, NBCUniversal's Peacock, Paramount+, and Max (formerly known as HBO Max) had not yet launched. Today, these streaming services have a combined total of over 300 million subscribers.

It's not too early to start contemplating what 2029 may symbolize. It's possible that by that time, streaming has become so dominant that the NFL may decide to move some Sunday afternoon packages away from broadcast TV, given the financial advantages and global reach of companies such as Netflix, Google, Apple, and Amazon.

The NFL is unlikely to do this, as TV ratings for football on CBS, Fox, and NBC are impressive. The Week 2 Bengals-Chiefs matchup on CBS was the most-watched September NFL game since 1998, with nearly 28 million viewers. NFL games last year were among the top 100 most-watched TV broadcasts.

Some legacy media executives are already considering 2029 and brainstorming internally about how they can compete against tech giants for NFL games. Their ideas range from incremental (a third Sunday afternoon package) to radical (replacing Sunday Ticket with a college model where every game has a national audience).

The league's local market broadcasting rules are becoming increasingly outdated as technology advances. With streaming services capable of hosting multiple games simultaneously, the league could potentially make more money by selling packages to multiple media partners rather than sticking with the Sunday Ticket model, which nearly cost the league $4.7 billion in damages when a jury ruled it violated antitrust law. However, a judge overturned the verdict last month.

While having multiple games compete against each other nationally may not be as profitable for media companies and the league, YouTube pays about $2 billion per year for Sunday Ticket in its current deal. This is a complex analysis, but it is likely that the NFL will examine it.

"Robert Fishman of MoffettNathanson stated, "This thought exercise is excellent. If it's a way to utilize broadcast networks' national reach while maintaining local access, then it's worth examining.""

The NFL has partnered with Netflix to carry Christmas games for the next three years, in addition to its longstanding partnership with YouTube and its annual $1 billion deal with Amazon to carry Thursday Night Football.

The NBA's most recent rights deal only sought three media packages to address consumer confusion and subscription fatigue.

The NFL has put games exclusively on Amazon Prime and NBCUniversal's Peacock, and ratings have remained strong.

The NFL rights architecture is the most significant decision in the American media industry, and it will continue to influence major media and entertainment choices for the next five years.

A couple of other news & notes …

• It appears that Warner Bros. Discovery is close to finalizing a deal with the emerging wrestling league All Elite Wrestling (AEW) before the end of this month. AEW's current agreement with Turner Sports, which is owned by Warner Bros. Discovery, will expire at the end of the year.
• Despite cutting a significant number of jobs this week, Paramount Global spared CBS Sports from any layoffs.