2025 is predicted to be a pivotal year for Amazon's Zoox robotaxi division.

• Amazon-backed Zoox is hoping to succeed in commercializing robotaxi operations in 2025.
• The company plans to launch public rides "soon," expand its regions and increase its self-driving vehicle fleet from the current few dozen.
• Zoox plans to launch its "Early Rider Program" in Las Vegas, which will be its first commercial market, in the coming months, followed by a public launch later this year.

Zoox is planning to expand its operations and launch its robotaxi business this year, making it a pivotal year for the autonomous vehicle unit.

According to co-founder and Chief Technology Officer Jesse Levinson, Zoox plans to start providing public rides "soon," increase its operating areas and substantially increase its self-driving vehicle fleet from the current few dozen it operates.

""We're thrilled with the advancements we've made, despite the considerable effort involved," Levinson stated during a 40-minute drive around Las Vegas in one of the company's robotaxis."

Despite some investors losing enthusiasm for autonomous vehicles, legacy automakers such as Ford and General Motors have also disbanded self-driving units in recent years.

Since early 2023, Zoox, which was founded a decade ago and acquired by Amazon for $1.3 billion in 2020, has been testing its purpose-built robotaxis on public roads in three cities: Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Foster City, California, where it is headquartered. The vehicles, which do not include manual controls such as a steering wheel or pedals, are currently being tested.

Zoox plans to launch its "Early Rider Program" in Las Vegas, which will be the company's first commercial market, before expanding to San Francisco later this year.

Zoox is considering expanding to Miami, Austin, Texas, and other cities, but the company has not set a specific timeline for these expansions.

By the end of this decade, if you're in most major cities in the U.S., this will be your preferred mode of transportation, according to Levinson.

Amazon does not reveal its investments in Zoox and other early-stage businesses, as these investments are viewed as long-term initiatives to benefit the company and its customers.

Riding in a robotaxi

Unlike Waymo, which retrofitted traditional vehicles with autonomous capabilities, the Zoox robotaxi was designed from scratch without a human driver.

Some have characterized vehicles like Zoox's robotaxis as "boxes" or "toasters." The doors open from the middle, with rows of seats facing each other, and there's no space for a driver. GM's Cruise also planned to launch a similar vehicle, the Origin, but canceled production after facing issues following an accident involving a pedestrian in October 2023.

"According to Sam Abuelsamid, an autonomous expert and vice president of market research at Telemetry Insights, Zoox's vehicle is quite interesting. He believes it has the right size and form factor."

The Zoox autonomous vehicle performed well during a sunny morning drive around the outskirts of the Las Vegas Strip. It made smooth turns and drove confidently, but not recklessly. Although there were some questionable decisions made during the ride, such as staying in a long line of vehicles and not maneuvering around a large trailer, overall, the vehicle operated as expected.

The Amazon-backed company has been working on assertive driving for years through extensive testing, Levinson stated. An autonomous vehicle cannot violate laws like many human drivers, but it must also avoid being too cautious or aggressive to prevent accidents or collisions with other human drivers.

Future of the business

If Zoox successfully grows and starts commercial operations this year, it would likely be a distant second to Waymo in the robotaxi industry.

"Although it may not be a commercially significant business this year, Zoox's Levinson stated that it will still be valuable to customers and useful in helping them navigate. The company has taken a cautious approach to scaling and deployment due to the critical nature of safety."

The GM's Cruise autonomous vehicle unit was once considered a leader alongside Waymo until the company halted its robotaxi fleet and ended commercial operations in October 2023, following an accident where external probes found the company had deceived regulators about the incident.

The commercialization of autonomous vehicles is being furthered by Waymo's provision of supervised rides to the public in Arizona in 2017, followed by unsupervised driverless rides in 2019. The company has since expanded to hundreds of autonomous vehicles in four markets, conducting over 150,000 paid rides per week.

While I believe that Zoox is taking the right technological approach, I am less certain about their business model. The technology is improving, but it is not yet flawless.

He continued, "But everyone is trying to determine the operating model that can both cover costs and generate profits."

The commercialization of robotaxi technology, which was expected to be an easy feat, turned out to be much more challenging at the end of the 2010s, as companies such as GM, Waymo, and others faced obstacles in bringing their grand ambitions to fruition.

Although self-driving vehicles have been shown to work, the costs have been significantly higher than initially predicted, with longer-than-expected paybacks. Additionally, there have been several reported on-road issues, as well as uncertainty surrounding regulations and liabilities.

While many companies, including Tesla, have expressed interest in establishing robotaxi businesses, they have not yet succeeded in developing driverless vehicles or commercial ride-hailing operations.

Waymo is expanding its robotaxi services to Austin and Atlanta through an expanded partnership with Uber, which will begin in early 2025. Additionally, Waymo anticipates expanding to Miami in early 2026.

"Abuelsamid stated that they are the absolute leader in the robotaxi industry, with no other company offering a real service at scale. They are significantly larger than their competitors."