This week, 10 European Central Bank members stated that inflation has fallen below expectations, leading to potential jumbo cuts.
- This week, at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting in Washington, D.C., several Governing Council members spoke to CNBC's Karen Tso.
The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the third time this year, and inflation fell below target, leaving policymakers' next move under scrutiny.
This week, at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting in Washington, D.C., several Governing Council members spoke to CNBC's Karen Tso about the inflation outlook, the possibility of a 50-basis-point interest cut in December, and other topics.
Mārtiņš Kazāks, Bank of Latvia
Given the data, we should have an open discussion about everything on the table. However, we will have this discussion in December and early next year, meeting to meeting. With the economy being weak and approaching the 2% target, the way is down at 3.25, and we are still in the restrictive territory.
"To ease the pressure on rates, we would need to do what is necessary, and this is what we will do. Of course, you know, we need to see the data. There are three possible cuts: 0%, 25 basis points, and a bigger cut, but the decision will depend on the data."
Pierre Wunsch, National Bank of Belgium
If you claim to be data-dependent, then you are data-dependent. I do not want to rely on what the data will reveal. There may be discussions about whether we should lift restrictions more quickly or not, based on the data. However, a 50-point move would be significant, and it would only be justified if we had data indicating a decline in inflation. Additionally, if GDP growth is also going in the wrong direction, which is not what we see today, it would not be justified.
"We've started early in cutting rates, but I think it's better if we do it gradually to avoid market volatility."
Mario Centeno, Bank of Portugal
Inflation in September was much lower than expected, with both headline and core rates falling below the anticipated levels. As a result, we have reached a point where inflation is as close to 2% in the medium term as it can be. Therefore, we must consider this in our story.
"We must examine the incoming data and the trends we have observed. It is likely that a 50 basis point increase will occur, as we remain data-dependent and the data we receive supports this direction."
Klaas Knot, Netherlands central bank
Is there a risk of underestimating our inflation target? I believe not. Why? Consider wages. They are currently growing at a rate that is twice the rate required for a 2% inflation target and a 0.5% productivity increase.
Despite not experiencing more productivity growth in the euro area, as long as wages remain high, there may be a temporary dip below our target. However, I believe the risk of a long-term, structural undershoot is not substantial.
"The 1.7% September inflation print is a short-term anomaly caused by base effects. It is expected to disappear from the data in the near future. Therefore, our policy takes a medium-term perspective, and our commitment to bringing inflation back to 2% is unwavering."
Robert Holzmann, Austrian National Bank
Some of my colleagues may opt for a significant reduction, while others won't. For me, I'll examine the data before making a decision.
"If things worsen as severely as some predict, we may face another 25 basis point reduction, but 50? I believe at this point, given the data, it's unlikely."
Joachim Nagel, German central bank
This discussion about 25 or something different is not productive. We are living in an uncertain environment, so we must wait for new data before making a decision.
"Our actions at the October meeting were based on our past monetary policy conduct, which allows us to maintain flexibility in all directions."
We should remain cautious about inflation. Although the September data met our target, there is a possibility that the upcoming data for October, November, and December may go in a different direction. Therefore, we should maintain our flexibility and adopt a data-dependent approach. This strategy has proven effective over the past two and a half years.
François Villeroy de Galhau, Bank of France
While progress has been made, it is crucial not to become overconfident.
If we experience an economic soft landing, we can have a reasonable degree of confidence. Two years ago, there were many fears on both sides of the Atlantic that we would have a recession and that the sacrifice ratio, the price to pay in terms of growth for coming back to the inflation target, would be very high. However, this is not the case.
"Our credibility played a significant role in the last episode of disinflation because inflation expectations remained well-anchored, and interest rates were much lower than in the Volcker episode 50 years ago."
Olli Rehn, Bank of Finland
In Europe, we have both positive and negative economic news. While disinflation is progressing, which benefits our households and citizens, we also face a weakened growth outlook. Additionally, productivity growth is a significant challenge for Europe, contributing to the decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week.
We are continuing the rate-cutting cycle, and the speed and scale of rate cuts will depend on incoming data. We are specifically looking at three factors: inflation output, underlying inflation (neutralized from energy and food prices), and the strength of monetary policy transmission. This is data dependency, but it is not just data-point dependency. It is more analysis-dependent.
Gediminas Šimkus, Bank of Lithuania
It is evident that we are heading towards relaxing monetary policy. At this juncture, I can confidently assert that we will witness cuts in the upcoming meetings. However, the magnitude and timing of these cuts will depend on the available data at the time of the decision.
"The October decision is dependent on the data and we need to take it."
Boris Vujčić, Croatian National Bank
In Europe, the economy is not as healthy as it was six or three months ago, according to the current PMIs. The slowing down of the economy is due to both structural and cyclical factors. Although the rates are now decreasing, which will help with the cyclical component, the structural issue will need to be addressed in the medium term.
I am open to any discussion on rate cuts in December. However, I am uncertain about the decision and believe we should wait until we have more data before making a decision. It is not appropriate to discuss 25 versus 50 basis points or a pause in December at this time, as anything can happen depending on the incoming data.
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