Trump Promised to Declare a National Energy Emergency Upon Taking Office: Possible Steps

• On the first day of his administration, President-elect Trump promised voters that he would reduce their energy bills by declaring a national emergency.
• Presidents have broad discretion to declare emergencies and face little pushback from the courts, making it unclear what authorities Trump might invoke.
• Biden administration energy policies are likely to be reversed through a series of executive orders from Trump.

As soon as he is inaugurated on Monday, President-elect Trump intends to proclaim a national energy crisis, despite his earlier pledge to reduce electric and gasoline costs by half within the first year of his presidency.

"In order to quickly reduce energy costs, I will declare a national emergency to increase energy production, generation, and supply, Trump stated to supporters at a rally in Potterville, Michigan last August. On the first day, I will approve new drilling, pipelines, refineries, power plants, and reactors, while cutting red tape."

The president-elect recently reaffirmed his plan to declare a national energy emergency on his first day in office. He also pledged to issue a series of executive orders to reverse Biden administration policies related to natural gas exports, drilling, and emissions standards.

Trump intends to create a National Energy Council, headed by North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, who was nominated to lead the Department of the Interior. Burgum stated during his Senate confirmation hearing that the council would be established through an executive order.

The president-elect's transition team did not respond to a request for comment on whether an emergency declaration would be largely symbolic or invoke broader powers beyond the executive orders on energy that Trump is expected to issue Monday.

"According to Mike Sommers, president of the American Petroleum Institute, the energy emergency will be declared rhetorically, with the executive orders providing the solution."

According to Glenn Schwartz, director of energy policy at Rapidan Energy, Trump has several emergency statutes related to energy that he could invoke. Under federal law, emergencies are loosely defined, giving the president broad discretion to use them as he sees fit.

Schwartz stated that Trump would likely encounter minimal opposition from the courts because they tend to be hesitant to challenge presidential decisions concerning national security.

The analyst stated that even if Trump were to increase his emergency powers beyond what has been done before, it is uncertain that the courts would intervene to stop any actions that result from this expansion.

Likely emergency authorities

Schwartz advised clients in a research report published last Thursday that there is a precedent for Trump to use emergency authority to boost power generation and increase the nation's fuel supply, which would involve waiving certain environmental and pollution rules related to energy.

The Clean Air Act allows Trump to issue fuel waivers, which would allow gasoline onto the market that violates federal air quality standards, according to the analyst. Presidents have frequently used such waivers to stretch the country's gasoline supply and keep prices stable, he added.

Schwartz stated that Trump could utilize the Federal Power Act to mandate power plants to operate at full capacity and disregard pollution regulations in the event of an emergency, such as war or a sudden surge in electricity demand.

Since World War II, the provision has been rarely used and is typically reserved for extreme weather situations that have overwhelmed power plants, according to Schwartz.

PJM Interconnection, the largest grid operator in the U.S., has warned of a power shortfall due to the faster retirement of coal plants than the addition of new capacity. PJM operates the grid in all or parts of 13 states, located in the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and South regions.

As the tech sector grows, the demand for electricity increases, potentially exacerbating the situation.

In 2018, the first Trump administration contemplated using the act to compel utilities to purchase two years of electricity from coal and nuclear plants that were on the brink of closure. However, the administration eventually abandoned the plan following opposition from the industry.

Schwartz stated that Trump could choose a broader law that allows the president to suspend pollution regulations for industrial facilities such as power plants, oil refineries, steel mills, chemical plants, and others during emergency situations.

Schwartz stated that there is less support under federal law for the president to force new production. Trump could direct federal agencies to expedite environmental reviews on energy projects he supports, such as pipelines, but the president cannot use emergency powers to bypass fundamental environmental policies like the National Environmental Policy Act and the Endangered Species Act, the analyst added.

Expected executive orders

The American Petroleum Institute's oil industry lobbyists expect Trump to issue energy-related orders on Monday.

The Biden administration is predicted to lift the pause on new liquified natural gas export facilities, as stated by Sommers. Additionally, the president-elect may attempt to reverse President Biden's recent decision to prohibit drilling in 625 million acres of federal waters. However, the legality of Trump's authority to do so has been questioned, and any such order would likely end up in court.

Sommers stated that he believes the individual has the capability to reverse the situation and they will defend that position in court.

The president is expected to direct the Interior Department to increase oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf Mexico, according to Sommers. Under a program that runs until 2029, the Biden administration has issued the fewest leases in history.

The U.S. has been the world's largest producer of oil and gas for six years, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. Despite this, the CEOs of Exxon and Chevron have stated that their production decisions are driven by market conditions, rather than political factors.

"Schwartz stated that while you can guide a horse towards water, you cannot compel them to drink. Similarly, although someone can provide resources for drilling, there is no evidence to suggest they can force the horse to extract it from the ground."

The Paris climate agreement and car emission standards are likely to be affected by Trump's decision to withdraw the U.S. from the agreement and issue executive orders.

The oil industry is more focused on pushing for more durable policy changes in the Republican-controlled Congress, according to Sommers.

Sommers stated that on day one, they will only be able to direct federal agencies to fulfill their energy dominance promise, as there is not much else they can accomplish.