The European Central Bank's vice-president warns that markets will be 'displeased' if the new French government does not pledge to adhere to fiscal rules.

The European Central Bank's vice-president warns that markets will be 'displeased' if the new French government does not pledge to adhere to fiscal rules.
The European Central Bank's vice-president warns that markets will be 'displeased' if the new French government does not pledge to adhere to fiscal rules.
  • According to European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos, markets would be upset for any government, not just France, because fiscal policy does not align with the new fiscal framework set by the European Central Bank.
  • Despite a widening of spreads in the French bond market since a snap election was called, de Guindos emphasized that movements had been "quite orderly."
Coming months won't be easy for euro zone inflation, ECB's Luis de Guindos says

If the new government of France does not comply with the European Central Bank's new fiscal rules, French markets will be "upset," according to Luis de Guindos, the institution's vice president, who made the statement on Tuesday.

Last month's French bond market movements did not necessitate an ECB intervention, according to De Guindos' statement to CNBC's Annette Weisbach.

In an interview at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, he stated that the evolution of French markets has been quite orderly.

"The widening of spreads has been observed, but the situation is under control."

The premium on France's borrowing costs compared to Germany's has recently been trading at its highest level since 2012.

The far-right National Rally party received the most votes in the first round of the election, but analysts predict a hung parliament in the second round. This outcome was viewed as a positive financial result by investors, who are worried about the tax and spending plans of both the far right and the far left.

Two weeks ago, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane's messaging mirrored that of De Guindos, stating that the June French bond sell-off was not "disorderly."

According to De Guindos, what is being discussed is not monetary policy, but rather fiscal policy, as he stated on CNBC on Tuesday.

Markets would be upset for any government, not only for France, because fiscal policy does not adapt to the new fiscal framework, as he explained.

"The crucial element is to fully adhere to the fiscal plan established at the start of the year."

In March, the framework was released that mandates EU member states with public debt ratios exceeding 60% of GDP or deficits above 3% of GDP to submit a four-year fiscal plan to the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU.

ECB official: We won't leave rates too high for an 'unnecessarily long' time

Despite the centrist government led by Prime Minister Attal, who is an ally of Macron, the Commission issued a reprimand to France and six other countries in June for their high budget deficits. France's debt to GDP ratio was 110% last year.

De Guindos stated that we will completely respect the results of any electoral process.

"So far, the evolution of markets has been quite ordinary, with no significant turmoil or chilblains observed."

"Despite examining the markets yesterday and today, the situation is now calmer than it was previously."

Hung parliament in France 'will reduce some uncertainty' for the ECB, Kiel Institute president says

The European economist at UBS, Anna Titareva, viewed the first-round French election results as being taken positively by the market, according to her comments on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Tuesday.

"The far-left coalition of parties is becoming less affordable, while the far-right party's rhetoric has softened in terms of potential conflicts with the European Commission regarding the fiscal outlook."

The ECB has various tools at its disposal for bond market intervention, such as the Transmission Protection Instrument and Outright Monetary Transactions, as she explained.

"Although they've stated that they would only act in response to a chaotic market reaction, our current observation suggests that there is little motivation for them to intervene."

by Jenni Reid

Markets