After tax hikes announced in the budget, UK borrowing costs increase.
- Since Labour came to power, U.K. borrowing costs have reached their highest level on Wednesday, following Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' announcement of a comprehensive tax increase package in her first budget.
- Despite recent turbulence, the gilt market remained stable compared to past years.
Since Labour came to power, U.K. borrowing costs have reached their highest level on Wednesday, following Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' announcement of a comprehensive tax increase package in her first budget.
The yield on spiked as much as 7 basis points in the hours following Reeves' announcements from 12:30 p.m., marking its highest level since she entered the post at the start of July. The yield had cooled to a 3 basis point rise to 4.35% by 4:00 p.m. U.K. time (12:00 p.m. ET).
In the U.K., gilts yielded over 6 basis points higher at 4.33%, after rising by as much as 10 basis points.
A higher yield is typically viewed as a sign of greater perceived risk for investors because yields move in the opposite direction to prices.
The budget included £40 billion ($52 billion) in tax increases to address the public finances deficit, with Reeves pledging to work towards a daily spending surplus and increased investment in public services.
The Treasury announced that it would increase gilt issuance by £22.2 billion ($28.9 billion) to £299.9 billion for the fiscal year to meet its net financing requirement.
Despite recent turbulence, the gilt market remained stable compared to past years.
In September 2022, under former Prime Minister Liz Truss of the Conservative Party, the market moved so severely that it threatened to destabilize U.K. pension funds and required emergency intervention from the Bank of England. Truss was forced to reverse the majority of the changes and resign within weeks after the unfunded tax cuts she announced.
It was predicted by analysts prior to the October 2024 budget that the volatility experienced would not occur again due to several factors. These factors included the announcement of many key policies and the fact that any increase in borrowing would be for public investment purposes.
Since the Truss era, the U.K. has experienced a significant decrease in inflation, with the latest reading at 1.7% compared to 10.1% during Truss's tenure.
According to Joe Maher, assistant economist at Capital Economics, investors are now more likely to tolerate looser fiscal policy because inflation has fallen to the Bank of England's 2% target and interest rates are expected to decrease.
Deutsche Bank Research's chief U.K. economist, Sanjay Raja, stated that Reeves' budget signaled a significant change in fiscal policy, with public services spending to reach £50 billion by the end of the decade and investment spending to increase by an additional £20 billion.
The Chancellor's plans have been met with broad optimism by markets, but the budget has signaled a significant increase in gilt issuance, which will be a challenge for markets in the future.
"The Chancellor has announced a reset of the fiscal framework, but headroom remains a challenge. With public spending pressures expected to rise, the Chancellor must balance tax increases or spending cuts to avoid violating her fiscal charter."
The government raised taxes in the Wednesday budget, as reported in the updated headline.
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