Could this summer's movie lineup result in the lowest box office earnings in years?

• Since 2009, there has been no Marvel film to start the summer box office's crucial movie season.
• During the first weekend in May, "The Fall Guy" from Universal grossed $28 million.
• The summer box office is not expected to do well due to the halt of production and clogged pipeline of new film releases caused by dual Hollywood labor strikes.

For the first time in a decade, the summer movie season lacks a Marvel film to kick it off, and this is evident.

Marvel Cinematic Universe movies have consistently been released during the highly profitable moviegoing season since 2008, with only two films generating openings of less than $100 million, excluding pandemic years.

Despite strong marketing efforts and solid reviews, "The Fall Guy" failed to drum up ticket sales during its opening last weekend, with the film tallying less than $28 million during its domestic debut.

Eric Handler, managing director at Roth MKM, stated in a note to investors Monday that "The Fall Guy" had quality co-stars in Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, but the lack of a known franchise brand and a niche storyline made it too narrow to attract a mass summer-like audience.

The decline in the summer box office is likely to worsen due to the stumble, which occurred after the dual Hollywood labor strikes halted production and clogged the pipeline of new film releases.

The 2024 summer box office could experience a decline of up to $800 million compared to 2023, according to Comscore's Paul Dergarabedian. This could have a significant impact on the entire year, as the summer period, which runs from May to Labor Day, typically accounts for 40% of the total annual domestic box office.

Moviegoers may not be aware of the features heading to the big screen due to a limited and unsteady stream of new films, as this summer's movie slate is not as strong as that of prior years, with fewer blockbusters and major franchise films.

Only one superhero movie is planned for the summer, "Deadpool and Wolverine," a first R-rated Disney Marvel film, which will be released in late July.

Despite predictions that the summer movie season will surpass $3 billion in ticket sales, analysts believe it will only barely exceed this amount. Prior to the Covid pandemic, the summer box office routinely exceeded $4 billion. According to Comscore data, the last time ticket sales were as low as $3 billion during this season was in 2000.

Despite the predicted annual decline in revenue, the summer of '24 should be evaluated based on the quality and value of the moviegoing experience rather than the amount of box office cash, according to Dergarabedian.

A lackluster summer

The box office is currently experiencing a 48% year-over-year decline, according to Handler. Although he anticipates that the May slate will boost ticket sales, the box office will need to generate significant revenue to regain lost ground.

"Cinema operators require a substantial content injection, as the volume of content in 2Q is low and lacks excitement, according to Handler."

Disney's "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" is projected to have a domestic opening weekend of between $55 million and $60 million, while Paramount's "IF" is expected to earn around $40 million. Additionally, Warner Bros.' "Furiosa" is predicted to generate between $40 million and $50 million.

In comparison to major releases during the same month last year, the forecasts are not as impressive. Universal's "Fast X" generated $67 million during its opening, while Disney's live-action film "The Little Mermaid" opened to $96 million.

The summer of 2021 has not yet produced any blockbuster hits, like Angel's "Sound of Freedom" in 2020, that could boost the overall box office.

A strong finish

The summer 2024 slate features more family-friendly fare, including a variety of animated films from popular franchises that will appeal to both parents and children during their summer vacation and school break.

In 2024, "Kung Fu Panda 4" from Universal is the second-highest-grossing film domestically, with $188.4 million in ticket sales, while "Dune: Part Two" from Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment is the highest-grossing domestic release of the year with $281.3 million.

And some heavy hitters are coming during the last stretch of the year.

"Early September will see the release of "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice," followed by "Joker: Folie a Deux" and "Venom: The Last Dance" in October. November will bring "Gladiator II," "Moana 2," and "Wicked," while December will feature "Kraven the Hunter," "Sonic the Hedgehog 3," and "Mufasa: The Lion King.""

In 2019, the first "Joker" grossed $335 million domestically, while both "Venom" films made $213 million each. "Moana" earned $248.7 million in 2016, and the two previous "Sonic" movies brought in $146 million and $190 million during their runs in theaters.

According to Dergarabedian, the race is won at the multiplex, not on a spreadsheet.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.