The Super Bowl matchup between the Bengals and Rams could increase Best Buy's TV sales, according to an analyst. However, a Chiefs-49ers game would be the worst-case scenario, the analyst says.

• Best Buy sales may benefit from the 33-year Super Bowl drought of the Cincinnati Bengals, according to Chicago-based Loop Capital Markets' projection.

The Cincinnati Bengals would be the better AFC team for the 2022 Super Bowl among the remaining National Football League playoff teams, at least for the time being.

This week, Loop Capital Markets analyzed which Super Bowl matchup would generate the highest sales of new TVs and home theaters for the retailer. The conclusion was that a Cincinnati Bengals versus Los Angeles Rams game would be the most beneficial for the retailer.

Loop Capital employed "metropolitan statistical area" measurements to estimate the population of a city and its surrounding areas. The combined MSA for Cincinnati and Los Angeles is 15.5 million. The clubs' combined 36 years since they last played in a Super Bowl, with 33 of those years being the Bengals' absence, could also boost potential sales, according to Loop.

Best Buy determined that a contest between the Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers would be the least desirable outcome for the company, as the teams have only appeared in the Super Bowl a combined three years and have smaller local fan populations.

The NFL experienced one of its highest viewership rates during the playoffs following the Chiefs' victory over the Bills. The game attracted an average of 42.7 million viewers and reached a peak of over 51 million people who watched Mahomes lead the Chiefs to a 42-36 win.

In the fourth quarter, with only 13 seconds left, the Chiefs star led a drive that tied the game at 36. He then went on to throw the game-winning touchdown in overtime, helping the team advance to its fourth consecutive AFC championship. CBS Sports’ telecast of the divisional postseason game was the most-watched on any network since 2017.

On Saturday, the network broadcasted the Bengals' playoff victory over the Titans, which attracted an average of 30.7 million viewers and reached a peak of 38.3 million.

So why the Bengals?

The estimated "national interest" among football fans would be high for both Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who won a college national championship just two years ago, and first-year Rams quarterback Matt Stafford.

The Bengals, who have never won an NFL championship despite appearing in the Super Bowl twice (1981 and 1988 seasons), won their first playoff game in 31 years after beating the Las Vegas Raiders in the wild card contest on Jan. 15.

Mahomes’ revenge also intriguing

But national interest doesn’t completely rule out the Chiefs.

The second most favorable NFL matchup was Mahomes vs. Stafford, with a combined MSA of 15.4 million. Additionally, Best Buy's "33 stores in the combined fanbase areas would be the highest of the potential matchups," according to Loop Capital managing director Anthony Chukumba.

And the Chiefs know all about Super Bowl droughts.

In 2020, the Chiefs won their first NFL title in 50 years by defeating the 49ers in the Super Bowl. However, they were unable to repeat their success in 2021, losing to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Chiefs' quarterback, Mahomes, is expected to receive national attention for his potential to redeem the team and join the list of quarterbacks with multiple Super Bowl wins in his fifth year in the NFL.

No love for the 49ers

Despite the 49ers being one of the more popular NFL teams, Best Buy shows little love for them, favoring more television sales for the Chiefs, Bengals, and Rams.

The 49ers' wild card win over the Dallas Cowboys drew 41.5 million viewers, while their loss to the Chiefs in the 2020 Super Bowl drew 100 million viewers on Fox.

The Super Bowl game between Mahomes and Brady last season was the least-watched since 2007, with 96.4 million viewers on CBS Sports. This year, NBC will host the Super Bowl in Los Angeles, marking the network's third time hosting the game since 2018.

The 49ers have a rising star wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, but Loop predicts that a Bengals-49ers game would not be ideal for Best Buy due to the combined population of approximately 7 million people in Cincinnati and San Francisco.

We believe that the national interest in the game would be limited, particularly given the 49ers' roster, which includes Garoppolo, who is often viewed as being one game away from losing his starting job.

The Super Bowl 2020 rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers would be the least favorable option for Best Buy's television sales, given the combined 6.9 million MSA population and the possibility of Chiefs fatigue, as the team has played in two consecutive Super Bowls.

The Chiefs, with their well-known players such as Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill, are expected to have a compelling national storyline. However, the 49ers' largely unknown roster may require reporters to work harder to create compelling national storylines.

If the 49ers defeat the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers' potential Super Bowl boycott will not be a concern.

Disclosure: NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC.

The 2020 Super Bowl was aired on the network that has been updated.