Russia is losing the information war against Ukraine.

• Russian forces are facing opposition from Ukraine's soldiers and civilians, who are gaining support in the hearts and minds of people worldwide.
• The early victory has provided some on-the-ground benefits, such as increased support from countries that share its cause.
• Russia's struggle to suppress opposition at home is markedly different from Ukraine's information battle.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses the camera with the casual demeanor of an amateur vlogger, wearing a T-shirt and sweater. He identifies the officials standing beside him as high-ranking Ukrainian officials who are similarly dressed.

In the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Zelenskyy stated calmly that we are all here to safeguard our country's sovereignty.

The Ukrainian government has been waging an information war against Russia, with many inexperienced Ukrainian fighters, including civilians, challenging the foreign troops on the ground.

Despite being an underdog in the ground battle, Ukraine is currently winning the hearts and minds of people, including in Russia where protests have emerged, and in countries that have exceeded expectations in their support.

Marc Polymeropoulos, a retired Central Intelligence Agency official, stated that Zelenskyy was not viewed as an effective leader two weeks ago. However, he is now seen as a Churchill-like figure due to the Ukrainians' use of information operations and social media to present themselves as brave defenders fighting for their freedom and Europe.

Ukraine has experienced tangible benefits from its early-stage victory in the information domain, including harsh sanctions on Russia imposed by the U.S. and the European Union and grassroots financial support. However, the duration of Ukraine's attention-grabbing success is uncertain. While several experts agree that Russia underestimated Ukraine's resilience, including in the information sphere, its disinformation and propaganda tactics may continue to target people in both countries if the war continues.

How winning the social media narrative fuels ground advantages

The capacity of Ukraine to influence the public discourse carries substantial consequences for three key groups: its own population and their resolve; foreign countries that can offer financial and diplomatic assistance; and Russians who support the cause.

The inspiring images of Ukraine's leader remaining steadfast during the conflict and the courageous tales of citizens taking up arms to safeguard their freedom can have a ripple effect.

Raphael Cohen, director of the strategy and doctrine program of Project Air Force at the nonprofit Rand Corp., stated that both courage and fear are contagious.

Grandmothers' heroic images in battles can inspire others to join, while defeat can discourage them from doing so.

According to Scott Radnitz, an associate professor of Russian and Eurasian Studies at the University of Washington, morale is crucial in the ongoing war. The Kremlin seems to have hoped that Russia would be able to destroy Ukraine's morale by making a Russian victory seem inevitable. Additionally, the Kremlin believes that the Ukrainian government is not popular and that people will eventually lose faith in it.

He stated that the effect of the conflict has been to strengthen the national unity of Ukrainians, and seeing social media images of Russian military vehicles breaking down and poor military tactics only serves to strengthen the resolve of Ukrainians who are resisting.

The conflict in Ukraine has garnered significant attention through various networks, both traditional and social, and has strengthened Ukraine's stance in the Western world. Despite this, a recent AP-NORC poll revealed that only 26% of Americans believe the U.S. should play a major role in the conflict. On the other hand, a CNN poll conducted by SSRS published earlier this week found that 83% of Americans support increased economic sanctions against Russia, with just 17% opposing.

The grassroots support for tough sanctions against Russia for its invasion has enabled leaders in the U.S. and Europe to pursue harsher tactics than anticipated. Additionally, many individuals have contributed to the Ukrainian effort through direct donations, including the use of cryptocurrency.

Molly McKew, an expert on information warfare, stated that Ukraine's early resilience in battles was crucial in gaining public support, drawing attention to the conflict, and putting pressure on European governments to take action against Russia before the war escalated.

Ukrainians demonstrated through images and narratives that the initial sanctions the West was prepared to impose on Russia were insufficient. Moreover, they demonstrated that Russia would not achieve the quick victory it had anticipated, necessitating assistance for Ukraine to continue the struggle.

The public's show of support motivated governments to take bolder actions, according to her.

The Russian government has tightened its control over information flow, announcing that it will restrict access to the platform after it refused to comply with its request to stop fact-checking and labeling state-affiliated media.

Despite the danger of speaking out against the regime, many Russian citizens have already taken to the streets to protest its government's actions in Ukraine. Western social media is accessible to Russian people, and the information they find from Western sources can challenge the Kremlin narrative pushed on state-owned networks.

The Kremlin appeared to underestimate the consequences of not shutting down social media access before the invasion, as Russia portrayed the operation as a swift and easy process. However, accounts from sources outside of state-controlled media reveal a different narrative.

Russia is not a democracy, and this war does not depend on the approval of the population, according to Radnitz. Putin has long been concerned about mass protests in the streets, which is why he has tightened his grip on opposition and independent groups. As a result, many of his foreign policy decisions in recent years have involved opposing Western organizations, whom he accuses of inciting revolutions in other post-Soviet countries. Consequently, the Kremlin is extremely afraid of large-scale protests in the streets.

Russia’s information battle is within

Experts noted that Russia's information campaign, despite its limited impact on the West, is still a significant aspect of its conflict with Ukraine.

To raise funds and resources, Ukraine aims to gain support both domestically and abroad, while Russia concentrates on suppressing opposition within its own borders and persuading Ukrainian fighters to surrender. The Russian government justifies the invasion by fabricating pretexts and falsely stating that Ukraine's leader is abandoning the country.

Radnitz believes that the audience for these claims is mostly Russians because the government must work hard to create a pretext to continue waging an unpopular war.

Margarita Konaev, a research fellow at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, stated that Ukraine doesn't need to convince its own population of the seriousness of the problem because they are already experiencing bombs landing on their heads.

Konaev stated that the Russian people are the main target of its disinformation campaign, which includes a false justification for the invasion. The secondary audience is the Ukrainian people, as the campaign aims to demoralize them and discourage them from continuing the fight by spreading discouraging messages about the war's progress.

Konaev stated that Russia may not need to concentrate on the information war abroad as it has already established a foundation through past disinformation campaigns, and right-wing commentators like Tucker Carlson have helped spread the Russian government's narrative.

Konaev stated that the cumulative effect of every disinformation campaign, regardless of the subject matter, has been detrimental.

Russia has no need to continue actively cultivating the space it has built within the target society, as it has already instilled doubt, eroded trust, and perpetuated a narrative through domestic actors.

The former CIA official, Polymeropoulos, stated that Russia understands its false narratives won't be effective in swaying the West, who are not its primary audience. Unlike previous Russian disinformation campaigns, such as those leading up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, its current narratives lack credibility and are therefore less persuasive.

No one takes the Russian operations seriously because they are so wildly fantastic, he said.

What happens next

While Ukraine is currently winning the information war, sustained attention is crucial to its success on the ground.

Konaev stated that the shock we are currently experiencing may fade as time passes, and if the focus changes and the momentum shifts, Ukraine will face real difficulties.

If the war continues, it will become increasingly difficult to hide its effects and human cost from the Russian population, and some may still speak out against the government, despite the danger.

The Kremlin will likely use high-profile arrests of critics on social media to demonstrate its power, but as economic hardship persists, more and more ordinary voices will express themselves in various ways, including on social media. Some of these images of Russians waiting in long lines at ATMs are already spreading, and it will be impossible for the Kremlin to hide the growing discontent in Russia.

McKew expressed concern that Russia may employ emotionally charged depictions of war to undermine the unity of the U.S. and EU and diminish their commitment to supporting Ukraine.

"Supporting a war is easy when it appears to be a group of happy and attractive Ukrainians enjoying themselves. However, it becomes difficult to support a war when it involves the deaths of children," she stated.

Polymeropoulos is monitoring the West's response to Russia's narratives by launching an information campaign of its own. He believes that the West's early countering of Russia's narratives may have caught the government off guard. He expects Western forces to amplify truthful information about protests and the human death toll of Russian soldiers within Russia.

Our operations are essentially publicizing Russian malfeasance," he said. "Russian disinformation operations are propaganda. They make things up. We don't have to make anything up.