Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election, Bitcoin is predicted to reach six figures, according to investors.

Regardless of the partisan sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry, it will continue to thrive over the long term, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November.

As the optimism generated by former President Donald Trump's pro-crypto statements in the summer begins to fade, many crypto investors are coming to accept a different view.

According to Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin, it is almost certainly the case that we will be in the six figures by 2025, and it is also almost certainly the case that we will be in the six figures regardless of who wins.

"Lubka stated that Bitcoin's investment nature is primarily influenced by the fiscal and monetary policies of countries, sovereigns, and the United States, and neither candidate intends to alter this."

James Davies, co-founder of Crypto Valley Exchange, stated that fears that a Kamala Harris presidency would negatively impact the price of bitcoin are unfounded. While crypto startups may face more challenges, the industry will continue to progress and flourish, thanks to the increased institutionalization of bitcoin with the launch of U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds this year.

"Our communities have become echo chambers and believe the sky will fall if one side or the other wins, but the truth is that the market is robust and not centered on the U.S., and hasn't reacted negatively to major events from either side of the partisan divide," Davies said.

"This pertains to opportunities and regulation for U.S.-based users, not the global commodity's price," he stated. "Crypto must emulate traditional finance, engage with both sides, and achieve success regardless of the election. To establish a substantial ecosystem, we cannot be partisan."

Exaggerated risk

Lubka acknowledged that some observers exaggerate the risks of a Harris presidency due to the industry's hostile experience during the Biden administration. However, he emphasized that all of the signs indicate a de-escalation of the Biden-era crypto rhetoric with Harris.

"Tyrone Ross, founder and president of registered investment advisor 401 Financial, stated that the election results will have minimal effects on how bitcoin performs over the next 12 to 18 months. Despite the election, firms are still working through ETF access, rate cuts are coming, and trading by retail at centralized custodians are at their lows. While it may be harder for young startups, bitcoin as a developing institutional-grade, quality asset will continue to prove itself regardless of who is in office."

Bitcoin has fluctuated between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of 2024, after reaching an all-time high of $73,000 in March. Investors have predicted that the price would remain stable until the U.S. presidential election in November. However, recent election news has had little impact on bitcoin's price, which is more influenced by macroeconomic developments.

On Wednesday, bitcoin dropped approximately 3% following the debate between Harris and Trump on Tuesday night. However, investors attributed this decline to interest rate announcements in Japan and U.S. inflation data for August, which was released early on Wednesday.

Growing partisan sentiment

It has been speculated that the election would serve as an immediate catalyst for bitcoin, with many characterizing a potential second Trump presidency as a boon for the industry. The former president addressed the annual Bitcoin Conference in late July in Nashville and ensured a reference was made a priority in the Republican Party Platform. This week, analysts at Bernstein said the way to invest in a potential Trump presidency is through bitcoin, adding that if he wins on Nov. 5, the cryptocurrency could break to a new all-time high around $80,000. A Harris victory, however, could push bitcoin toward $40,000, Bernstein said.

If Trump wins in November, will there be an immediate pump? Yes, absolutely. If Harris wins, could there be some immediate sell pressure? That certainly wouldn't surprise me. But over the medium term, I don't think that's the dynamic, said Lubka of Swan Bitcoin.

The crypto industry is concerned that Vice President Harris may be antagonistic to crypto and holds views similar to Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, which are believed to be hindering the adoption of crypto.

Although there haven't been clear statements, the bad history under the Biden administration has led people to pay attention, as Lubka explained.

Despite the Biden administration's stance on bitcoin, "I would remind investors that bitcoin has been one of the most successful assets in the world during a period where everyone was opposed to it," Lubka stated. "Governments have traditionally been at least mildly hostile to bitcoin throughout its history, and it has still done extremely well."

Since 2012, Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset in all but three years.

According to Daniel Cawrey, the chief strategy officer at crypto wallet operator Tonkeeper, the eventual winner of the November election will likely cause a short-term rally or muted market reaction. However, Cawrey stated that crypto has already improved during this election season.

"Unlike Biden, Harris has not ignored the crypto industry since becoming the Democratic nominee. Her campaign has been engaging with stakeholders in the industry, which could lead to better guidelines for the industry."