Nate Silver advises against relying on Trump swing polls and betting markets data in the 2024 presidential election.

• Nate Silver, a political polling data expert, believes that Donald Trump has a higher chance of winning the election than Kamala Harris, but he also warns CNBC that the polling momentum for Trump is uncertain.
• Silver, a professional poker player and consultant to a prediction market, states that despite his Trump call, it is not a profitable bet for gamblers as it was in 2016 when a winning Trump wager would have resulted in significant payouts.
• While betting markets indicate a substantial advantage for Trump and Wall Street billionaires predict the stock and bond markets are readying for a Trump presidency, Silver perceives only "chatter" rather than reliable information.

Nate Silver, a renowned data expert, excels in making accurate predictions on elections and at the poker table. Currently, both polls and betting markets indicate a shift in momentum towards Donald Trump and away from Kamala Harris with only a week remaining before the 2024 presidential election.

In a recent interview with CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime" anchor Jon Fortt, Silver discussed his concerns about current polling and betting markets, despite previously stating that the odds favor Trump in a New York Times op-ed.

Fortt was informed by Silver that his current model indicates that Trump has a 55% to 45% advantage over Harris in the upcoming election.

He countered any anecdotal example he could provide for why Trump's momentum is peaking by offering a counter example.

After two cycles of inaccurate polling, many pollsters are becoming disheartened and giving up on their work.

"Silver explained at the CNBC event that a hypothetical pollster conversation might go like this: "Harris is up 3%? Let's say 1%. Trump up by 4? Let's say 1.5%. This is known as herding, where individuals are drawn towards the majority opinion. They prefer opinions that are not too far from the consensus.""

If Trump's supporters are more enthusiastic, they may participate in more polls, while Harris-leaning voters may participate in fewer polls.

Political polling is not as accurate as people believe, Silver stated, pointing out that even if a 52%-48% edge is modeled and the outcome is the opposite, it is still considered close. However, political polling is unique, and it is becoming increasingly challenging for polls to be correct.

Recent polls favoring Trump are "swamped by the uncertainty and tripped off by the noise," according to Silver.

Silver stated that only five percent of people respond to polls, and they are peculiar.

Today, many people do not use landline phones, which were crucial for past election cycle polling history.

Why the betting markets may be all 'vibe and chatter'

The betting markets indicate a significant advantage for Trump, as evidenced by large bets on Polymarket and Robinhood's entry into the market, as well as the increasing popularity of presidential election contracts.

Recent stock and bond actions, as well as the success of the Truth Social platform, indicate that there is greater confidence in a second term for Trump, according to research reports from big banks and billionaire investors such as Ken Griffin and Stanley Drunkenmiller.

Silver, a consultant to Polymarket, one of the leading prediction markets, advises that the betting markets data should not be relied upon at present, as they may not be very accurate due to the limited historical data on elections. Most of the calls made by prediction markets are based on "vibe and chatter" rather than useful information.

Prediction markets can be useful in certain situations, such as after the debate between Trump and Biden, when they quickly predicted that it was bad for Biden and potentially suggested a more challenging race for Trump. However, on election night, smart individuals can analyze county-by-county votes to determine the election's direction. Currently, Silver believes that the markets' predictions may indicate that they are overconfident rather than providing evidence that they can defy conventional wisdom, which is what good data analysis should achieve.

The real money is made in bets that can generate outsize returns. Trump was once a lucrative bet for gamblers in 2016, with Silver's model predicting his odds of winning at 29%, almost double his odds in most polls. However, this time around, Trump is not as favorable a bet as he is favored by as much as 66% to 34% over the vice president, with polls and models showing a much tighter race. Harris, therefore, may be the better bet.

Silver says that anyone who is confident about the election outcome should be disregarded.

All the reasons why Trump may win and Harris lose

Silver explained that Harris is vulnerable due to several reasons, including inflation and immigration, which were losing issues inherited from the Biden administration. Biden's unpopularity with voters forced him to exit the race, and even though inflation is now under control, prices are still significantly higher than they were four years ago.

Incumbent parties are facing challenges in elections worldwide, according to the poker player in Silver, who has won over $800,000 as a professional player. He described Harris as having "a tough hand to play."

While Silver observed that Democrats have won five of the past six popular votes, abortion is a significant disadvantage for the Republican Party in this election, and Democrats are skilled at motivating voters to turn out, Trump relinquished this responsibility to Elon Musk, who lacks experience in voter campaigns. Despite this, Trump added a qualifier, stating that this election could see a surprise turnout that benefits him more than Harris.

According to Silver, first-time voters are not as liberal as they typically are. He explained that a liberal-leaning first-time voter is no longer inspired by large organizations like the Democratic Party, although he emphasized that this is a significant change and not related to the Israel-Gaza War politics.

Silver stated that the likelihood of Harris being voted for by the margin has decreased.

Younger Black, Latino, and Asian-American voters are increasingly turning to Trump, despite historical trends, according to Silver.

An 18-year-old who voted for the first time and would have been 10 when Trump was first elected as a voter is unlikely to be swayed by any concerns lingering from Trump's term in office. For young Black voters, Silver said, the civil rights era is a distant memory, which can sever historical ties to the Democratic Party.

Younger voters, especially, Silver said, are "unmoored post-Covid."

Silver believes that the Harris campaign may have made mistakes in relying too heavily on a perceived "sugar high" in polls after the convention and debate against Trump, which most people thought Harris handled well. In the short-term, the team "ran on vibes," Silver said. He believes that the Harris team didn't have a long-term message and didn't consider how it would play out through November.

"Trump is not an ideal candidate," he said.