If ByteDance decides to sell its U.S. operations, TikTok could be worth as much as $50 billion.

• According to Bloomberg News, the Chinese government has considered a plan in which Elon Musk would acquire the operations as part of several scenarios under consideration.
• An estimate by CFRA Research Senior Vice President Angelo Zino suggests that potential buyers may have to spend between $40 billion to $50 billion if ByteDance decides to sell.
• Previously, a group of businesspeople, including billionaire Frank McCourt and Kevin O'Leary, the chairman of O'Leary Ventures, have stated that they are willing to pay up to $20 billion for TikTok.

Elon Musk and other business moguls should be ready to invest billions of dollars for TikTok's U.S. operations if ByteDance decides to sell.

The U.S. may ban TikTok if the Supreme Court upholds a national security law that penalizes service providers like ByteDance and Musk for hosting the app after Sunday.

If ByteDance decides to sell, potential buyers may have to spend between $40 billion to $50 billion. That's the estimated valuation for TikTok's U.S. operations by CFRA Research Senior Vice President Angelo Zino. Zino based his valuation on estimates of TikTok's U.S. user base and revenue in comparison to rival apps.

In the U.S., TikTok has 115 million monthly mobile users, slightly behind Instagram's 131 million, but ahead of Snapchat, Facebook, and Twitter, which have 96 million, 74 million, and 32 million monthly mobile users, respectively, according to Sensor Tower.

In March 2024, Zino estimated the unit's value to be over $60 billion. However, his current estimate is lower than that, at less than $60 billion. This change occurred after the House passed the initial national security bill that President Biden signed into law in April 2021.

TikTok's lowered estimate is due to its current geopolitical situation and the decline in industry multiples since March, as stated by Zino in an email to CNBC. Zino's estimate does not include TikTok's valuable recommendation algorithms, which a U.S. acquirer would not obtain as part of a deal, with the algorithms and their alleged ties to China being the central concern of the U.S. government's case that TikTok poses a national security threat.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts forecast TikTok's U.S. operations to be worth between $30 billion and $35 billion in July, stating that the value of the unit would be reduced due to it being a compulsory sale.

TikTok's U.S. operations sale is challenging due to the need for a buyer who can afford the transaction and handle the regulatory scrutiny on data privacy, as well as the difficulty for a buyer to expand TikTok's ads business.

A group of businesspeople, including billionaire Frank McCourt and Kevin O'Leary, submitted a bid to purchase TikTok from ByteDance. O'Leary has previously stated that they would be willing to pay up to $20 billion to acquire the U.S. assets without the algorithm.

In a Monday interview with Fox News, O'Leary stated that his group's bid would not be subject to regulatory oversight, unlike Musk's proposal.

O'Leary stated that he is a big fan of Elon Musk, but added that the likelihood of the regulator, even under the Trump administration, approving this is very slim.

TikTok, X and O'Leary Ventures did not respond to requests for comment.

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