Future conflicts may arise due to water scarcity, with multiple hotspots worldwide.

• The possibility of water conflicts is a persistent and ongoing discussion, with various stakeholders, including top U.N. officials and distinguished hydro-politics experts, expressing their concerns about the potential dangers.
• Recent months have seen a surge of water-related headlines due to increasing competition for water in arid regions and the exacerbating impact of climate change.
• Nine international river basins were identified as potential flashpoints by Francis Galgano, an associate professor at Villanova University's geography and environment department in Pennsylvania.

One of the most pressing environmental security challenges of the century is the dwindling availability of water resources worldwide.

A military geography and environmental security specialist believes that water scarcity, geopolitics, and the potential for violent conflict are interconnected in a warming world, as stated in a recent study.

The deepening climate crisis and poor governance in acutely vulnerable areas, particularly in transboundary river basins, are two major concerns, according to Francis Galgano, an associate professor at the department of geography and the environment at Villanova University in Pennsylvania.

The growing effect of aridity and climate change is destabilizing our ability to resolve water conflicts peacefully and effectively, according to Galgano, who spoke to CNBC via videoconference.

"Although I sincerely hope to be mistaken, my stance is supported by the evidence."

The possibility of water conflicts is a persistent and ongoing discussion, with various stakeholders, including top U.N. officials and distinguished hydro-politics experts, expressing their concerns about the potential dangers.

Even if there is a possibility of an increase in social tensions and violence, water can serve as a means for peaceful negotiations rather than being a tool of war, according to the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI), a non-profit organization with expertise in water governance.

The global challenge of ensuring the sustainability of water is becoming increasingly urgent. It is estimated that half of the world's population already faces severe water scarcity during at least part of the year, while data published last year by the World Resources Institute warned that a staggering $70 trillion — or 31% of global gross domestic product — could be exposed to high water stress by 2050.

Recent months have seen a surge of water-related headlines due to increasing competition for water in arid regions and the exacerbating impact of climate change.

In January, Mexico's capital city residents protested an unprecedented weeks-long water shortage. Iranian authorities warned in June that Tehran and over 800 towns and villages were at risk from land subsidence. Moody's Ratings recently stated that severe water shortages in India could harm its sovereign credit strength.

An increase of over 230% in the number of water-related security incidents between January 2019 and May 2024 has further emphasized the severity of the global water crisis, as reported by Control Risks in early June.

The global risk consultancy stated that protests and violent unrest related to water shortages or pollution were unlikely to decrease in the upcoming months.

Egypt-Ethiopia tensions

Nine international river basins have been identified by Villanova University's Galgano as potential flashpoints for armed conflict.

The Nile Basin in Africa, the Tigris-Euphrates River Basins of southwestern Asia, and the Helmand and Harirud Rivers along the border of Afghanistan and Iran are among the included rivers.

The Nile Basin has been unable to reach an agreement on a contentious dam, and Egypt has declared that they will go to war if necessary.

For decades, Egypt and Ethiopia have been at odds over Ethiopia's construction of a $4 billion hydroelectric dam on the Nile's main tributary.

The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, is causing concerns among Egyptians that it will negatively impact their water and irrigation supply, potentially leading to a conflict.

If GERD significantly reduces water flow in Egypt, that could be a trigger. Despite efforts since 2011 to establish a structured agreement, they have not been successful. Galgano views this as a major issue.

Turkey, Syria and Iraq

Another flashpoint in the Middle East is the Tigris-Euphrates rivers, which run parallel to each other.

According to Galgano, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to be more firmly entrenched in his insular and nationalist views on various issues, which may lead him to make a decision to block the water. This would leave Iraq and Syria in a dry state.

The Himalayas are facing water problems due to China, particularly in western China. Militarily, there is no one who can challenge them, but this is a concern that we worry about.

"The Brahmaputra River and the Indus River are both significant global flashpoints in the region between India, Pakistan, and Nepal."

In response to concerns about potential water conflicts, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released a list of seven actions that can help address impending water scarcity in March.

The measures included protecting and restoring natural spaces, improving water efficiency, fixing water leaks, utilizing unconventional water sources like treating and reusing wastewater, and adopting integrated approaches in decision-making.