Epic's victory over Google is unlikely to have a significant impact in the short term.

• On Monday, the trial against Epic Games ended with a jury ruling that Google was guilty of anticompetitive practices related to its Google Play store for Android apps.
• The app store revenue stream of the company could be affected by changes to its billing model, and it could also lead to separate antitrust action.
• Google is expected to appeal the ruling, which means any changes on Wall Street will be postponed for months to years.

On Monday, a federal jury found that Google's app store has profited from anticompetitive behavior, but it may take a long time before any changes to the Google Play store are implemented, and those changes are unlikely to have a significant impact on revenue. However, this ruling could provide additional evidence for other antitrust cases against the company, even though those cases may take years to be resolved.

In 2020, Epic Games filed a lawsuit against Google, accusing the company of abusing its market power as the Android developer to strike deals with handset manufacturers and charge excessive fees from consumers. Google collects between 15% and 30% for all digital purchases made through its storefront. Epic attempted to circumvent these fees by allowing users to make direct purchases in the popular game Fortnite; Google subsequently removed the game from its store, prompting the lawsuit.

In a northern California federal court on Monday, a jury concluded that Google had maintained a monopoly in the Android app distribution market and in-app billing market for digital goods and services transactions after a four-week trial. Meanwhile, Epic lost its similar suit against Apple in federal appeals court in April.

In a CNBC interview, Epic CEO Tim Sweeney attributed the company's victory to the revelation that Google had deleted or failed to keep records of its secretive deals with app developers. He also pointed out that the trial was a jury trial, unlike the Apple case, which was decided by a judge.

Google is facing two separate Justice Department lawsuits in Virginia and Washington, D.C., over allegations of anticompetitive behavior.

Judge James Donato of the United States District Court for the Northern District of California will decide on remedies in the next phase in the coming months. Epic Games requested that Google change its Play Store rules, rather than monetary relief.

What’s at stake?

While the company does not disclose its Google Play revenue separately, it is included in its "Google Services" segment, which generated $67.99 billion in the third quarter of 2023, up from $61.38 billion the previous year. The company earns revenue from consumer in-app purchases and subscriptions.

According to a Wells Fargo analyst note on Tuesday, it is estimated that Google will generate $38.5 billion in revenue from its Google Play Store in 2023. This accounts for approximately 13% of the company's total expected revenue of $305.7 billion for the year, as per LSEG (formerly Refinitiv) estimates.

If Epic wins, Google may have to alter its app store payment system, allowing developers to choose their own billing methods without being required to use Google's system in order to distribute through the Play Store.

Google may be forced to alter its Android commission fee, which ranges from 15% to 30%, due to changes in its policy on digital goods and services purchased through apps.

The court could mandate Google to provide equal exposure to other app stores on its Android ecosystem, which dominates the global smartphone operating system market. While the Google Play Store is preinstalled on most Android devices, users can manually install alternative stores. The court could order Google to allow other app stores to have the same level of access on third-party devices, prevent Google from limiting their distribution, or take other actions to ensure consumers have options.

The information that emerged during the trial could provide third parties with additional bargaining power, according to KeyBanc analysts in a Monday night note.

In the trial, Epic Games called a Google executive who stated that Google provided Spotify with a lower rate on Google Play subscription purchases, specifically 4%, as opposed to the standard 15% for other companies.

Tim Sweeney, CEO of Epic Games, stated on CNBC Tuesday that he believes it will be impossible for Google's Business Development team to avoid providing everyone with the Spotify deal, and he hopes journalists will give this matter adequate attention.

During the trial, financial information was disclosed, such as Pichai revealing that Google pays Apple 36% of Safari search revenue under a default search agreement that is crucial to the Justice Department's antitrust claims. Epic's attorney then claimed that Google pays Samsung, Android's largest hardware partner, less than half of what it pays to Apple. Pichai responded that it was possible, but he was not certain.

A long journey ahead

It will be a while before any potential changes come to pass.

Google may be tied up in appeals court for years due to its denial of any wrongdoing and its decision to appeal the verdict.

Wilson White, VP, Government Affairs & Public Policy, stated that the trial revealed that we compete intensely with Apple and its App Store, as well as app stores on Android devices and gaming consoles. We will persist in safeguarding the Android business model and maintain our unwavering dedication to our users, partners, and the entire Android ecosystem.

Needham analysts wrote that Google's epic loss is much ado about nothing, and they expect a multi-year process before any changes would likely come to pass, as noted on Tuesday.

In the worst-case scenario, Google may lose all appeals and be forced to add competitors, although it is uncertain whether consumers would switch to them. Additionally, Google could charge new competitors a revenue share of 15% or more to sell their apps on the Play Store, which would require the new competitors to charge consumers higher fees that include Google's "overhead" charge."

The verdict has the potential to initiate antitrust action against Google, which could target its core revenue streams. Some analysts believe that the loss could impact an ongoing case brought by the Department of Justice.

The verdict on Alphabet's antitrust case did not significantly affect its stock price, which closed down less than 1% on Tuesday.

CNBC Tech Reporter Kif Leswing contributed to this report.