Coinbase's election prediction is on the line.

• Coinbase was among the top corporate donors during this election cycle, supporting candidates whose views aligned with its pro-crypto agenda.
• Fairshake and its affiliated PACs received more than $75 million from a crypto exchange, including a new commitment of $25 million for the 2026 midterms.
• Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, is one of the top individual donors in the crypto industry, having given over $1.3 million to various candidates across the political spectrum.

As his ambitions for his crypto exchange grew, so did Brian Armstrong's need to engage with Washington, D.C.

In 2012, Coinbase was founded by Armstrong, who recognized the need to actively engage in a policy effort as crypto grew, prompting him to travel to D.C. for meetings with political leaders, as he shared with CNBC in September.

Coinbase has become Armstrong's primary occupation, and the company's funds are spread throughout the nation's capital. During this election cycle, Coinbase was one of the top corporate donors, contributing more than $75 million to Fairshake and its affiliate PACs, including a $25 million pledge to support the pro-crypto super PAC in the 2026 midterms. Additionally, Armstrong personally donated over $1.3 million to a variety of candidates up and down the ballot.

Coinbase's market cap expansion has made it existential for the tech industry's biggest names to influence Washington's policies.

Gary Gensler, the SEC Chair, filed a lawsuit against the firm last year, accusing it of selling unregistered securities. A judge has since ruled that the case should be heard by a jury. Coinbase has vigorously defended itself and has also stated that it is willing to collaborate with regulators to establish a legal framework for the burgeoning industry.

Meanwhile, Coinbase faces a growing list of competitors.

Last week, Coinbase's quarterly earnings report showed a miss on both the top and bottom lines, resulting in a 15% drop in share prices due to lower transaction and subscription and services revenues.

According to CCData, the exchange is losing market share in the spot market to competitors such as Crypto.com. Additionally, since the SEC approved spot funds this year, investors now have more options for accessing bitcoin and ethereum. BlackRock's ETF chief, Samara Cohen, stated on CNBC that 75% of its bitcoin buyers are new to Wall Street and are crypto investors.

Coinbase hopes to become the leader in the cryptocurrency industry with the help of favorable lawmakers, despite facing competition from other companies.

Armstrong's D.C. visits were once or twice a year, but they became a quarterly occurrence and have since increased in frequency.

""Initially, many individuals were unfamiliar with crypto," Armstrong stated during his earlier journeys. Currently, the conversation has progressed to the point of discussing how to establish clear regulations and legislation in the United States."

An SEC sans Chair Gensler

In June, Coinbase's chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, attended a fundraiser in San Francisco that raised $12 million for former President Donald Trump. The event was hosted by venture capitalist David Sacks, who became an outspoken supporter of Trump after initially criticizing him.

Grewal later joined a fundraiser in Nashville in July for the former president.

Trump has not demonstrated much proficiency in the complexities of crypto, but he has accepted the industry's financial backing. He was praised in the summer when he pledged to dismiss Gensler as head of the SEC if he gets elected.

Grewal revealed to CNBC that he had multiple private discussions with both the Trump campaign and Harris' campaign team prior to Election Day. Despite being in a virtual tie, the candidates were still neck-and-neck heading into the big day.

"Grewal stated that both campaigns recognize the importance of addressing the concerns of voters who care about crypto in swing states. They understand the need to support sensible rules and legislation for crypto, which is a positive sign."

Grewal stated that Trump initially held a pro-crypto stance, while Harris acknowledged the importance of establishing reasonable regulations for crypto technology.

Coinbase has been concentrating solely on Congressional races for its political interests, with the aim of supporting lawmakers who have a positive outlook on the cryptocurrency industry.

Coinbase's Stand With Crypto Alliance has established a rating system for political candidates in the House and Senate nationwide.

In the Ohio Senate race, the organization grades Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, who chairs the banking committee, with an "F" versus an "A" for his Republican rival Bernie Moreno, a blockchain entrepreneur. The race is very close and is crucial in determining which party will control the Senate, with $40 million of crypto money directed at defeating Brown and one PAC paying for five ads to boost awareness of Moreno.

Crypto, with 1.4 million advocates nationwide, is also working to mobilize digital asset owners in swing states through a cross-country bus tour aimed at voter registration.

Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase's chief policy officer, stated in an interview that it is remarkable to see crypto become a significant factor in the 2020 election's outcome, given the narrow margin of victory.

Shirzad stated that his team and he concluded that the only way to remove politics from crypto was by establishing their own political operation. The objective is to neutralize the politicization of the crypto issue and discuss it based on its merits.

Crypto firms account for nearly half of the corporate money raised during this election.

This election cycle, Fairshake, one of the top spending PACs, has raised approximately $170 million and disbursed around $135 million.

Ripple Labs is another one of Fairshake's top political donors.

The company, which has spent more than $100 million fighting Gensler, has given approximately $50 million to Fairshake. Several executives have also contributed to a blend of Democratic and Republican candidates in races nationwide.

At a fintech conference in Las Vegas, Lauren Belive, Ripple's head of U.S. public policy, stated that the company's actions were driven by the SEC's excessive regulations.

Believe stated that the goal was to elect individuals who could comprehend the technology and its implications, as Congress needs to enact federal laws and avoid an enforcement regime. She mentioned that the regulator has issued over 100 enforcement actions against crypto-aligned companies.

The crypto voter

The rally held at The Black Cat in Washington on a Wednesday night in September marked the conclusion of Crypto's bus tour.

The music venue, with its purple-painted walls, exposed brick, and black-and-white checkered floor, gives off an "Alice in Wonderland" vibe and has no windows.

Attendees were given free "Stand with Crypto" merchandise as music played and drinks flowed. Additionally, surplus goodie bags were given out to those who wanted to take extras home.

Armstrong confidently spoke to CNBC just outside the venue, wearing a suit and tie in contrast to his fellow attendees.

"The crypto voter has emerged as a significant factor in this election, according to Armstrong," he stated. "I believe the crypto voter is a legitimate force, and we'll observe the outcome in November."

The rally featured Armstrong, Consensys CEO Joe Lubin, and Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.). However, most of the remarks were drowned out by the loud noise of the crowd.

The audience was silent when The Chainsmokers appeared on stage. The band began with their hit song "Paris," and the crowd joined in singing the chorus: "If we go down, then we go down together."

On the eve of the U.S. election, Bitcoin falls to $67,000.