Beijing's delicate balancing act with AI: staying ahead of the U.S. while maintaining control.

• The Chinese government is currently attempting to strike a balance between advancing AI technology and maintaining control over its development.
• The focus is on the evolution of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the near future and how China will handle the technology.
• Max Tegmark, a prominent AI scientist, warns that the narrative of a geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China racing to build the smartest AI is a "suicide race."

The development of smarter-than-human artificial intelligence by China could give it an advantage over the U.S., but this groundbreaking technology could also threaten the Communist Party's control over China's economy.

Max Tegmark, a prominent AI scientist, believes that AGI is closer than we think and that the narrative of a geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China racing to build the smartest AI is a "suicide race."

AI that surpasses human intelligence is generally referred to as AGI.

The demand for AI chatbots has surged, but many companies are competing to create AI with human-like intelligence.

While some tech industry leaders believe AGI could be achieved by 2025, others think it's still a distant possibility.

The competition between technology companies and the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China for dominance in AI and chips are often portrayed as a race to be first to the latest technology, but Tegmark believes this is not the right framing.

"Tegmark described the geopolitical battle to build AGI first as a "hopium war" in an interview with CNBC last month, explaining that he called it this because it is driven by "delusional hope that we can control AGI.""

Tegmark, the president of the Future of Life Institute, wrote a letter last year urging AI labs to halt the development of advanced AI systems. The letter was endorsed by major tech leaders, including CEO Elon Musk. Tegmark fears that AI is advancing at an alarming rate without proper safeguards in place, and there is no way to control it if it surpasses human intelligence.

Tegmark stated that we are closer to constructing AGI than determining how to manage it. As a result, the AGI competition is not an arms race but a self-destructive one.

Is China worried about AGI?

According to Tegmark, China has little motivation to develop AGI, as Elon Musk recounted a tale in which he had a "high-level meeting" with Chinese government officials in early 2023. Musk stated that if AGI is created, China will not be controlled by the Communist Party, but by the super intelligence, Tegmark said.

Tegmark stated that Musk received a strong reaction, with some individuals not having considered the implications until China released their first AI regulations just a month later.

The Chinese foreign ministry and Tesla did not respond to requests for comment on the anecdote.

Tegmark stated that the U.S. does not need to persuade China to refrain from developing AGI. Even if the U.S. did not exist, the Chinese government would still have a motivation to avoid building it because they desire control.

"They do not want to lose that control."

China's approach to AI

The Chinese government has made AI a top priority, with major companies like Huawei and investing heavily in developing their own models. These models' capabilities are also improving.

China was one of the first countries to regulate various aspects of AI, despite its heavily censored internet and blocking of information that goes against Beijing's ideology. OpenAI's ChatGPT is banned and chatbots in China won't answer questions related to politics and sensitive topics deemed by the Communist Party.

China is likely to adopt a similar approach to AI as its country when it comes to AGI, according to analysts.

According to Kendra Schaefer, a partner at Trivium China, it is unlikely that China will limit its own AI capabilities due to concerns that such technologies could threaten Party rule. This prediction is similar to those made about the internet, which have all proven to be false.

"China aims to control AGI through a regulatory framework that restricts its capabilities within the country."

U.S.-China AI battle

Geopolitics continues to be a significant factor in the development of AGI between the U.S. and China, as Tegmark sees the race to build AGI as a "hopium war."

According to Abishur Prakash, founder and geopolitical strategist at Toronto-based strategy advisory firm, The Geopolitical Business, China is currently viewing AI through a dual perspective: geopolitical power and domestic growth.

China aims to shift the global power balance with AI and create a new export model, while also powering its economy through government efficiency and business applications, as Prakash stated to CNBC.

The US has implemented a policy aimed at limiting China's access to crucial technologies, specifically semiconductors such as those developed by Intel, which are essential for developing advanced AI models. In response, China has endeavored to establish its domestic chip industry.

Will the U.S. and China partner on AI rules?

Some risks and dangers associated with AGI have been warned about by technologists. One theory suggests that without constraints, AI can enhance itself and create new systems on its own.

Tegmark predicts that both the U.S. and China will face risks related to AI safety, prompting their governments to independently establish rules for AI safety.

Tegmark stated that his optimistic approach involves the U.S. and China imposing national safety standards to safeguard their own companies from creating uncontrollable AGI, rather than doing so to please their rivals superpowers, with the ultimate goal of protecting themselves.

"Once the U.S. and China reach an agreement on AGI, they will face a new challenge: ensuring that North Korea does not develop AGI. To address this issue, the U.S. and China will have an incentive to push the rest of the world to join them in an AGI moratorium."

Governments worldwide are collaborating to establish regulations and frameworks for AI. The U.K. hosted an AI safety summit last year, attended by the U.S. and China, to discuss potential safeguards for the technology.

The European Union has enacted the AI Act, the first major law globally governing the technology, while China has its own set of rules, and many other countries have not yet moved to create any regulation.

Tegmark's hope of co-ordination around AI safety is echoed by others.

Schaefer of China's Trivium stated that nations should come together and mutually regulate when the dangers of competition outweigh the rewards.

Beijing desires to establish a global governance body under the UN, as some Chinese policymakers have advocated for getting ahead of potential issues and doing so would be similar to the International Atomic Energy Agency.