Analysts predict lower-than-expected iPhone 16 demand, causing Apple shares to slide.
- The new iPhone 16's demand is lower than expected, resulting in a 3.6% decline in Apple shares on Monday morning, according to a note by TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
- Apple Intelligence, a major selling point for the new models at Apple's annual event last week, won't be available until next month in beta.
- According to analysts at Bank of America and JPMorgan, shipping times for the latest iPhone Pro models could lead to lower demand compared to the previous year.
The new iPhone 16's demand is lower than expected, resulting in a 3.6% slide in shares on Monday morning, according to TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Additionally, the iPhone 16's sales are down 12% year over year from the first-weekend sales of the iPhone 15 last year.
According to Kuo, the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is the key factor.
The major selling point, Apple Intelligence, is not available at launch alongside the iPhone 16 release, which is one of the "key factors" contributing to lower demand. Furthermore, intense competition in the Chinese market continues to impact iPhone demand.
Apple unveiled new versions of the iPhone, AirPods, and Apple Watch at an event at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. Pre-orders for the new iPhones began on Friday and will launch on September 20. However, the first Apple Intelligence features for iPhone 16 won't launch until next month, in a beta version.
According to analysts at Barclays, JPMorgan, and Bank of America, shipping times for the latest iPhone Pro models could lead to lower demand compared to the previous year.
"According to Barclays analysts, pre-order figures on major Chinese e-commerce sites showed a decline in total units within the first few days, with a lower proportion of pro model units. The pro model units were down by double digits on a year-over-year basis, while the base and plus models experienced growth."
The rollout of Apple Intelligence in the Chinese language is not until CY2025, which may dampen early enthusiasm for IP16. Weak macro and competition continue to weigh on iPhone sales in China. Apple had to rely on significant discounts to help China sales for the iPhone 15.
According to JPMorgan analysts, early lead times for iPhone 16 base models are in line with the iPhone 15 series during Week 1, while early demand indicators for Pro models are starting off modestly softer compared to the iPhone 15 series.
According to BofA analysts, the ship time for iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models is longer than last year, but not as much as on average compared to the pre-order cycle.
The analysts noted that while the extension of ship dates for iPhones may reflect demand, other factors such as supply, inventory, allocation, and pricing could also affect ship dates. Additionally, Apple reduced iPhone 16 prices in Australia and India.
The iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max are Apple's premium phones with superior screens and cameras, priced at $999 and $1,199, respectively.
Apple announced at its event last week that the Pro models have the "thinnest borders on any Apple product," and they are "by far our best iPhone displays ever." The titanium used in these models is nearly half the weight of stainless steel and is "more scratch resistant than other forms of titanium others have used."
During the event, the company claimed that the new iPhone 16 Pro Max has the best battery life of any iPhone model. However, they did not provide any further information on this claim.
-- CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
Technology
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