After a decade of unfulfilled promises from Elon Musk, Tesla's robotaxi event is finally happening.

After a decade of unfulfilled promises from Elon Musk, Tesla's robotaxi event is finally happening.
After a decade of unfulfilled promises from Elon Musk, Tesla's robotaxi event is finally happening.
  • Soon, Tesla investors will be able to view CEO Elon Musk's latest vision for driverless technology.
  • The robotaxi event on Thursday marks the end of years of unfulfilled promises by Musk to deliver fully autonomous vehicles.
  • Tesla robotaxi business model specifics are desired by industry experts beyond technology.

The CyberCab, as CEO Elon Musk has named it, will soon be unveiled to investors during the highly anticipated robotaxi event.

Despite a decade of failed promises to produce self-driving cars, Tesla faces skepticism about its technological capabilities and the timeline for its robotaxi launch.

The "Robotaxi Day," or "We, Robot," event is set to take place at 7:00 p.m. Pacific time at a Warner Bros. studio in Burbank, California and will be streamed live via X.

On Oct. 4, Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA, warned that a Tesla robotaxi may appear more advanced in a closed course on a movie studio lot than it would in normal traffic and on public roads. CFRA has a hold rating on the stock.

Tesla's stock price decreased by approximately 1% on Thursday, reaching $238.77. This decline has caused a nearly 4% drop in value for the year, and is over 40% lower than their record high in 2021.

Tesla's third-quarter deliveries of 462,890 increased the yearly total to 1.35 million, surpassing the 1.81 million deliveries reported for all of last year.

Analysts from firms such as Wedbush, ARK, and RBC Capital Markets are optimistic about the company's ability to sustain long-term sales growth and introduce advanced products, including an autonomous vehicle, humanoid robotics, and other AI-driven products and services.

On Wednesday, Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management announced on CNBC's "Fast Money" that he will be attending the event and intends to test the robotaxi.

Tesla will launch robotaxis in some cities by the end of 2025, and the company is also expected to announce plans for an affordable electric vehicle, possibly a Model 3 stripped-down version, and an electric van, according to Munster, a long-time Tesla bull.

He stated that although he anticipates the stock to decline following the event, it may achieve new heights within the next two years as deliveries increase.

Tesla was initially viewed as a leader in autonomous vehicle technology, but has never successfully demonstrated or delivered robotaxi services. As a result, the company is now considered a latecomer.

In the U.S. and China, commercial robotaxi services are being operated by Waymo and several Chinese firms.

On Wednesday, a report by Morgan Stanley analysts stated that if Tesla successfully launches a "level 4" robotaxi, it will have a cost-per-mile advantage over its competitors using its existing hardware and software.

Tesla's robotaxis could generate $1.7T of revenue by 2040, says RBC's Tom Narayan

Tesla has faced both missed deadlines and safety concerns with its driver assistance systems, which are advertised as the standard Autopilot and premium Full Self-Driving (Supervised) options.

Tesla leaders should be able to address the issue of "phantom braking," which occurs when vehicles with ADAS unexpectedly apply their brakes while driving at high speeds with no visible obstacles around them, according to Missy Cummings, a professor at George Mason University and director of the Mason Autonomy and Robotics Center.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is currently investigating Tesla's phantom braking issues. Cummings, a former senior safety advisor to the regulator, stated on CNBC that if Tesla cannot resolve phantom braking for level 2 vehicles, they will not be able to solve it for level 4 or 5 vehicles, which include driver assistance systems.

Since 2021, NHTSA data shows that 1,399 crashes occurred when Tesla driver assistance systems were active within 30 seconds of the crash, resulting in 31 fatalities.

Tesla executives, including Musk, should be able to provide specific details on how their vehicles will operate in various weather conditions, such as fog, rain, snow, and lighting, or in dark tunnels, according to Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Guidehouse Insights.

He demands Tesla executives to confirm whether they will take full responsibility for the operation of these vehicles, which he considers essential for a genuine robotaxi without human intervention.

Tesla plans to own and operate its robotaxis or lease or sell them to consumers and fleet operators.

"Abuelsamid stated that while many companies have made advancements in automated driving technology, they have struggled to develop a profitable business model. Tesla faces numerous challenges and Abuelsamid wants to understand how all the elements will fit together."

Tesla's Waymo-like car may not be available for another five years.

Will be another five years before we see a 'Waymo-like' car from Tesla, says Roth MKM's Craig Irwin
by Lora Kolodny

Technology