A global cyberwar is imminent as Russia invades Ukraine.

• Numerous cyberattacks have targeted Ukraine's government and banking system in recent weeks, with experts attributing the attacks to Russia.
• Fears of a broader digital conflict have emerged due to the escalation of attacks, with Western governments taking precautions against potential cyber threats from Russia.
• The possibility of a cyberwar between Russia and the West is being considered by researchers, although the potential intensity of such an occurrence may be reduced.

The escalation of cyberattacks by Russia on Ukraine, coinciding with a military invasion, has caused concern among governments in both the Atlantic regions about the possibility of the conflict spreading and turning into a full-scale cyberwar.

In recent weeks, Ukraine's government and banking system have been the target of cyberattacks, which have been attributed to Russia.

ESET, a cybersecurity firm, announced on Thursday that it had discovered new malware designed to wipe data from Ukrainian organizations.

Yesterday, several Ukrainian government departments and banks experienced a DDoS attack, where hackers flooded their websites with traffic, causing them to crash.

Last week, four Ukrainian government websites were taken down in a separate attack, which U.S. and U.K. officials attributed to the GRU, the Russian military intelligence agency.

Ukrainian residents reportedly received fake text messages stating that ATMs in the country were not functioning, which cybersecurity experts believe was a scare tactic. Meanwhile, Russia claims it does not engage in any "malicious" cyber operations.

Fears of a wider digital conflict have arisen due to the increase in attacks, with Western governments preparing for potential cyberthreats from Russia and contemplating their response.

Both American and British officials are urging businesses to be vigilant against Russian cyber threats, while Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas advised European countries to stay informed about their cybersecurity status.

On Thursday, NBC News reported that President Biden has been given options to launch cyberattacks on Russia to disrupt internet connectivity and cut off its electricity. However, a White House spokesperson denied the report, stating it was "completely false."

The possibility of an online conflict between Russia and the West is a possibility, though the severity of such an event may be limited, according to cybersecurity researchers.

John Hultquist, vice president of intelligence analysis at Mandiant, stated to CNBC that while it's possible for cyberwar to occur, it's crucial to consider the reality of it.

Most cyberattacks are nonviolent and largely reversible, despite the ease of comparing them to real war when hearing the term.

‘Spillover’

Toby Lewis, head of threat analysis at Darktrace, stated that the attacks have mainly targeted Russia's physical invasion of Ukraine.

According to him, Russia seems to be looking for physical land and territory rather than economic influence, which makes a cyber-first approach more suitable for achieving its goals.

Symantec researchers reported that the wiper malware found in Ukraine also affected Ukrainian government contractors in Latvia and Lithuania, suggesting a possible "spillover" of Russia's cyberwarfare tactics into other countries.

The cyber-conflict may have a ripple effect on global supply chains and other Western countries that share contractors and service providers, according to Lewis.

A cyber rapid-response team is being launched by several European Union countries, including Lithuania, Croatia, and Poland, to provide support to Ukraine.

According to Hitesh Sheth, CEO of Vectra AI, cyberattacks are now considered a first strike weapon by nation-states, as evidenced by recent events.

Russia could retaliate with cyberattacks against the West in response to the sanctions announced earlier this week, as suggested by Sheth.

He stated that, given Russia's overt cyberattacks on Ukraine, it is likely that they would use covert channels to attack financial institutions that are working to limit them.

What happens next?

Governments and cybersecurity researchers have long accused Russia of carrying out cyberattacks and spreading misinformation to disrupt economies and undermine democracy.

Russia may carry out more advanced cyberattacks, aiming at Ukraine and potentially other nations, according to experts' predictions.

In 2017, a notorious malware called NotPetya infected computers worldwide. Initially targeting Ukrainian organizations, it soon spread globally, affecting major corporations such as Maersk, Mimosa, and others. The attacks were attributed to Sandworm, the hacking unit of GRU, and resulted in an estimated $10 billion in total damage.

Hultquist stated to CNBC that if the West is targeted with such activities, it could result in significant economic repercussions.

The concern is that they target critical infrastructure.

For a long time, Russia has been secretly digging at infrastructure in Western countries, including the U.S., U.K., and Germany, and has been caught multiple times, according to Hultquist.

Nevertheless, the issue is that we have never witnessed them execute their plan," Hultquist stated. "The belief has consistently been that they were readying for unforeseen circumstances.

Is this the contingency they have been preparing for, and the threshold they've been waiting for to start carrying out disruptions? We are concerned that this could be it.

In 2021, a ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline, a US oil pipeline system, caused critical energy infrastructure to go offline. Despite this, the Biden administration claims it does not believe Moscow was responsible for the attack. The hacking group responsible, DarkSide, was believed to have been based in Russia.